Dem
47
GOP
53
The current government budget runs out on Dec. 20. If Congress does nothing, the government will shut down just before Christmas. Grinch-oriented Republicans would love that, but many of the others are afraid they might hear from their constituents about things like federal employees and members of the military not getting paid, etc. In theory, Congress could put together a final budget, instead of just kicking the can down the road a few weeks each time, but Republicans can't agree on what they want. Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, wants to stop these games and pass an actual budget by then. So does the ranking Democrat, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT).
But other Republicans want a short delay until February or March so Donald Trump can take a sledgehammer to the budget. The problem there is that the budget is always a battle due to the Freedom Caucus. Trump will have so much other stuff on his plate in February that a lengthy fight over the budget could distract him from immigration and other priorities. These Republicans are willing to have one more year of Biden's budget and give Trump a year to come up with his own. For them, the other stuff is more important.
Arch-conservative Republicans are worried about being forced to approve yet another budget at the point of a gun, as has happened so many times. They want a continuing resolution until March, so they can work their magic on Trump and get him to wipe out whole chunks of government by simply removing all their funding. If funding for, say, the Dept. of Education went to zero in the new budget, they wouldn't have to have a massive fight trying to eliminate it and then fail due to a Senate filibuster. Just defund it and keep it around with no personnel. Then Secretary Linda McMahon could just sit around in her lovely office watching reruns of old wrestling matches or something.
FC Chair Andy Harris (R-MD) wants to include a provision in the budget to require all voters to show government-issued photo ID in order to vote. The problem with that is that to prevent the Senate Democrats from filibustering the budget, it has to be done by the budget reconciliation process. Under those rules, budget bills can't contain items that are not primarily budget related. If the Republicans try, the Senate parliamentarian would probably order that provision to be stripped. That is a fight that other Republicans don't want now.
So, there are at least three possibilities for a Christmas present from Congress:
All of them are plausible. No one really wants #3, but that could be the consequence if the Republicans want to go to the mattresses on this. And remember, the Democrats control the Senate until Jan. 3 and are not going to accept a bill that guts the government. If that is going to happen, they would prefer that Trump be president when it happens so he gets the full blame for it. (V)