Dem
47
GOP
53
Nominations are not the only hot potatoes that Donald Trump is tossing at Congress. There are plenty of others. Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) are going to be the Democrats' top targets in 2026. Collins represents a blue state; Tillis is from a purple state. Although Trump carried North Carolina, Democrats were elected governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and superintendent of public instruction, so Democrats can definitely win statewide there. Both of the senators know that every vote they take on Trump's nominations could provide fodder for ads in 2026, so they will have to weigh their votes very carefully.
But other senators up in 2026, even those from deep-red states, will also have to think carefully before voting blindly for all of Trump's nominees and bills. For example, will Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Steve Daines (R-MT) vote for tariffs on Chinese products (assuming Trump doesn't try to bypass Congress)? Those tariffs will create retaliatory tariffs that will bankrupt many farmers in their states. Do Rounds and Daines want to have to defend their votes in 2026?
What will Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) do when Trump orders ICE to deport illegal immigrants and ICE raids farms and businesses all over Texas, arresting all the brown people, some of whom are U.S. citizens, and puts them in internment camps for deportation with no due process? Those citizens may have friends and families who get to vote in 2026, and Democrats might just try to make hay (or alfalfa) from Cornyn's vote.
In short, many Republican senators up in 2026 will face dilemmas over and over in the next year. They may have to (repeatedly) choose between what Trump wants and face the music in the midterms, when the president's party usually gets hit hard, or abandon Trump, join with the Democrats (and their own constituents) and face a primary against an opponent supported by Trump.
These considerations could lead to odd alliances. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) might join forces concerning pork (literally), albeit for different reasons. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and former CIA agent and Sen.-elect Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) are actually probably on the same page about national security and might work together to block the nomination of Tulsi Gabbard for DNI. There are likely to be more. Fundamentally, a lot of what Trump wants is not good for some senators' constituents, and the Democrats are surely going to try to peel votes away from Trump using the argument that senators who vote against their own constituents' interests do so at their own peril. (V)