Dem
47
GOP
53
Over the weekend, the heat was turned up in Ukraine. On the Russian side, North Korea has sent thousands of troops to "help out," particularly in Russia's Kursk region. In response, Joe Biden reversed his previous policy, and gave Ukraine authorization to use heavy-duty long-range American missiles against Russia.
Vladimir Putin, as you might guess, is not happy about this turn of events. "It is clear," said a Kremlin spokesman, "that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps, and they have talked about this, to continue to pour oil on the fire and continue to provoke further escalation of tension around this conflict." Obviously, Putin forgot that he doesn't get a veto over U.S. policy in Ukraine until January 20 of next year.
The statecraft going on here, at least on the American side, is actually pretty complicated. The missiles Biden has just approved are formally known as Army Tactical Missile Systems, acronymized as ATACMS, and are pretty much universally referred to as "Attack 'ems." They can deliver a 375-pound payload a distance of just less than 200 miles, and they fly high and fast, so they're very hard to shoot down. Previously, Putin had warned that the use of the Attack 'ems would be considered a red-line-crossing offense, and might even provoke a nuclear response. However, bringing the North Koreans into the conflict means that Putin escalated it first, so he's not exactly in a position to play the victim here. Plus, any action he takes against the U.S. will, in short order, become actions undertaken against his beloved Donald Trump. So, the risks here are considerably less than they would have been, say, 18 months ago.
Meanwhile, Biden is trying to accomplish two things in terms of what happens once he leaves office. First, at the moment, the Ukrainians hold a pretty big chunk of Kursk (which, again, is part of Russia), while the Russians hold a pretty big chunk of Donbas (which is part of Ukraine). If Ukraine can hold on to Kursk, then they have a very nice bargaining chip available if and when everyone decides this is a stalemate, and it's time to talk peace. A Kursk-for-Donbas trade could be just the thing for all involved. But that can't happen unless Ukraine is able to hold its ground, which the Attack 'ems will help it do.
In addition, the U.S. isn't the only country that has sent this particular type of weapon to Ukraine. The U.K. has also sent some, and so has France. Their long-range missiles do much the same thing as the Attack 'ems do, and were developed as a joint effort between the two nations (the British call theirs "Storm Shadow" and the French call theirs "SCALP," but they are the same). Those two allies were leery of being the first to authorize long-range strikes, but now Biden has broken the glass, in case of emergency, as it were. So, now the U.K. and France are clear to grant permission to use the Storm Shadows/SCALPs. And, whaddya know, they apparently have done so (none of the three nations officially admits to having granted permission, and yet... the missiles are flying). What Biden is hoping, obviously, is that now that he's crossed the Rubicon first, France and England will be able to take over the defense of Kursk, should U.S. support be cut for any reason in, say, 63 days or so.
What you are watching here is one of the final chapters (maybe THE final chapter) in the foreign relations career of someone who has been at this a long time, and who really knows what they are doing. Biden's gambits may or may not work out, but he is squeezing as much as he can out of a pretty lousy hand right now. It could be a long time before we see a president, or a presidential candidate, with the foreign policy chops of a Biden, a Hillary Clinton, a George H.W. Bush, or a Richard Nixon. (Z)