Dem
47
GOP
53
Legendary Iowa pollster Ann Selzer is hanging up her phone and leaving the polling business altogether. The week before the election, she predicted that Kamala Harris would win Iowa by 3 points. This caused a huge stir, with many people thinking Harris was doing well in the Midwest. In reality, Harris lost the state by 13 points.
Could Selzer have survived, and kept doing polling for the Des Moines Register? Possibly, but with such a huge booboo, it would have been difficult and many people would not have taken her seriously anymore, even though until this year, she really did have a stellar record. But as it is with so many things, being great for 20 years followed by one spectacular failure means that all people remember is the one failure. For example, in 2008, she was the only pollster to predict that the unknown Barack Obama was going to sweep the Iowa caucuses and be on his way to getting the Democratic nomination. Nobody believed her, but she was right and everyone else was wrong. In 2016, Nate Silver published an article headlined: "Ann Selzer is the Best Pollster in Politics."
Selzer is 68 and told the Register earlier this year that she was not going to renew her contract with it. It is just a pity she is leaving on such a low note after having gotten it right for so many years. Use this link to download her valedictory video. (V)