Nov.18

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Trifectas Aren't Forever

The Republicans will have the trifecta in January and an undisputed leader of the party with very strong opinions on everything. He certainly knows that the Democrats picked up 41 seats in 2018 and could do very well in the House again in 2026. So he needs to get his program through in the first year. In the second year, the elections begin to dominate.

Trifectas aren't unusual. Here is a list of them since 1960:

As you can see, in recent times they have generally lasted only one session of Congress. The reason is that the president's party typically gets walloped (or shellacked, as Obama put it) in the first midterm because his supporters are unhappy that he wasn't able to fulfill all his promises, despite controlling Congress, while at the same time the opposition is energized.

The country was optimistic and happy in the 1960s. There was peace and prosperity and the Civil Rights movement inspired many Black voters to switch to the Democrats, even though it was Republican Abraham Lincoln who freed the slaves. Consequently, the Democrats managed to hold the trifecta for 8 years. After the dour Richard Nixon's forced resignation, the young Jimmy Carter won and the country was optimistic again and he held the trifecta for his entire term. Ronald Reagan won huge majorities in the electoral college, but was never able to bring the House with him. Neither was his successor, George H.W. Bush.

Bill Clinton had the trifecta for 2 years, but Newt Gingrich engineered a massive Republican victory in 1994 with his Contract with America. Republicans flipped 54 seats in the House and ended up with 230. They stymied Clinton thereafter.

The Democrats flipped the Senate in 2000, denying George W. Bush the trifecta, but he got it in the 2002 election on account of 9/11 and held it for 4 years. After being reelected, he tried to privatize Social Security. That was a disaster, and Democrats won the Senate and House in 2006.

The two chambers stayed Democratic in 2008, when the young, dynamic Barack Obama swept into the White House in a huge wave. But the first-midterm jinx hit him hard in 2010 when the Republicans won 63 seats and ended up with 242. Democrats held the Senate, though.

Donald Trump got the trifecta for the first 2 years of his first term, but the reaction to him in 2018 was strong and Democrats flipped 39 seats and ended up with 235.

Joe Biden had the trifecta the first 2 years of his term, but lost it in the 2022 midterms when the Republicans flipped 9 seats to end up at 222.

In the 119th Congress, Republicans will control both chambers (narrowly), so there will be a Republican trifecta for at least 2 years. If they govern well, they might be able to hold it for 4 years, but with the margins small and Donald Trump trying to carry out an unpopular and extreme agenda, it might not last. If history is any guide, the reaction to Trump will be fierce and Democrats could break the trifecta in 2026, more likely by flipping the House than the Senate due to the Senate map (see below).

One of the reasons recent trifectas have been for only one session of Congress is that the party in power realizes it probably has only 2 years to get its program through, so it pushes the envelope. It often overreaches, trying for goals that even its own members are not united on. This unites the other side because it doesn't have to agree on actual policy issues (which it often can't). All it has to do is scream that the other guys are ruining the country. It usually works, at least for the House, which can change dramatically from cycle to cycle. (V)