Dem
47
GOP
53
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is preparing to hit the ground running, as every major media outlet has now called the House of Representatives for the Republican Party. That, of course, gives the GOP the trifecta.
At the moment, the Associated Press (and most other outlets) have the red team with 218 seats, the blue team with 210, and 7 seats still to be awarded. Here's a quick rundown of the seats that are still up in the air:
Assuming that all of the folks who currently have leads are able to keep those leads, then that means the undecided seats will go 4R, 3D. However, 4D, 3R is also pretty plausible.
It presumably goes without saying that Johnson's plans to roll up his sleeves and get to work could soon run into cold, hard numerical realities. At the moment, he's looking at a majority of 222-213, or maybe 221-214. As a reminder, for most of Johnson's time as speaker, it's been something like 220-212. And Donald Trump has already poached three members (Matt Gaetz, R-FL; Elise Stefanik, R-NY; Mike Waltz, R-FL), and could poach more. So, the Speaker could start with a majority that is something like 218-213 or 217-214. The Freedom Caucus still exists, of course, and has roughly 38 members. So, they will be in a position to put the kibosh on... pretty much anything they want to. And it won't even take the whole FC, just a few of the really nutty ones.
Johnson is undoubtedly happy to retain the House majority, and the Republicans are undoubtedly happy to have the trifecta, but it's under some of the least desirable circumstances possible. To start, things figure to get ugly in the House, given the raw numbers, not to mention the fact that the far-right is really feeling its oats right now. And if and when the Speaker finally does get a bill passed that does anything more important than rename a post office, then the Senate is no sure thing, given the rather less radical character of that body, not to mention the filibuster (which may, or may not, survive).
Also unhelpful, from the Speaker's perspective, are the two trifecta leaders (trifectans?) he most needs to rely on. Newly-minted Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is not Trumpy, and not inclined toward passing whackadoodle legislation. One can imagine a dynamic developing that is not unlike the frosty relationship that existed between Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell. Meanwhile, the other trifectan is Donald Trump, who has little interest in governing, and little patience for sausage-making. The President-elect might send out a tweet in the middle of the night, but he's not going to do much else to help steer legislation through Congress. And when and if a bill gets to his desk, there's no guarantee he'll actually sign it, even if he's promised to do so.
Finally, as the Republicans face these less-than-pleasant dynamics, the fact that they have the trifecta (even if barely) means that they get to own EVERYTHING. If the government shuts down, or the nation defaults on the debt, or tariffs lead to crazy inflation, or border crossings are not reduced, or whatever, there's no blaming the Democrats, since the Democrats control none of the levers of power. The same is true if nothing gets done.
Reader P.F. in Fairbanks, AK writes in with a sentiment that is common among many Democrats right now:
I was relieved to learn that the Democrats did not retain the House.
In 2 years, Americans will return to the polls and it must be clear and unambiguous who owns this clown show. The worst thing that could happen is allowing the public to wonder aloud why the Democrats didn't impeach Trump or why they couldn't intervene in poor policy. Nearly as bad would be conservatives blaming Trump's inability to wreak even more havoc on Democrats' obstruction. Imagine the dueling campaign calls: Fire the Democrats for doing nothing to stop Trump; Fire the Democrats for getting in Trump's way. Lose-lose.
Republicans must own this, all of it, without exception. Too many Republicans hid behind Democrats as their line of defense against Trump so they could cower behind their guardrails while basking in the MAGA-love, all as they publicly whipped those same Democrats for daring to be the guardrails that made the whole thing work. Now they can stand naked before the American people and grasp at straws to explain their failures.
America voted for this, and America needs to see exactly what they voted for.
There is something to be said for this point of view. Whenever an American political party gains the trifecta, then the system operates like parliamentary systems tend to operate, where the party in power is in an optimal position to implement its agenda, but also an optimal position to take the blame for anything and everything that goes wrong. If Johnson, in particular, is going to navigate such a fraught situation, he's going to have to show considerably more skill than he has displayed thus far in his career as speaker. (Z)