Dem
47
GOP
53
Very crudely: Class trumps race. The problem of Latinos deserting the Democrats can be seen clearly in Starr County, on the Rio Grande in South Texas. It is 97% Latino. It was Democratic for a century. In 2012, Barack Obama won it with 86% of the vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton got 79%. In 2020, Joe Biden got 53%. Although it shouldn't have been, it was a big shock when Donald Trump won 58% of the vote on Election Day this year. Trump also gained with Latinos all over the country. What's going on here?
For decades, Democrats talked about immigration and how racist Republicans are. They still are, but younger Latinos, born in the U.S., don't identify primarily as Latino. They see themselves as working-class and see the same problems as white working-class people. The Democrats' views on immigrants (good) don't work the old magic anymore. Instead, they are attracted to the Republicans' views on immigrants (bad) because they see new immigrants as competitors for the work they are trying to get. Unless the Democrats can reverse this trend, they will be the minority party for a while.
Maybe the Democrats did spend too much time chasing suburban women, but it wouldn't be impossible to return to their own roots and pay more attention to issues like jobs and the minimum wage. This would help with both working-class whites, but also Latinos, 80% of whom are working class. Many do manual labor. Climate change and pronouns don't do it for them. They believe that Democrats are elites out of touch with the concerns of real people. To a considerable extent, that is probably true.
Another problem is overpromising. Barack Obama promised a path to citizenship for the Dreamers, but the votes in Congress weren't there and he couldn't do it. Many Latinos do not understand that presidents can't do much on their own and getting anything the least bit controversial through Congress is extremely difficult. But to them, Obama made a promise and didn't deliver. Time to try the other side.
Sen.-elect Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) just won in a state in which 25% of the voters are Latino. He has some thoughts on why so many Latino men voted for Trump and what the Democrats need to do to get them back. As famed philosopher Woody Allen said, 90% of success is just showing up. Democrats didn't show up. They were too busy wooing college-educated suburban women. Gallego said Democrats have to go where the Latino men are. He hosted rodeos, boxing-match watch parties, and carne asada cookouts. He visited construction sites. He showed up. He also didn't fall into the trap that Latinos want open borders. His first Spanish-language TV ad was about border security. He wanted to beef it up. Many Latinos like that.
Gallego grew up in a family headed by a single mother struggling to feed her kids. He knows what that is like and how humiliating it is for Latino men not to be able to provide for their families. They can't eat pronouns. He says the way to get Latinos back is to address their economic concerns: jobs and wages. Es la economía, estúpido. (V)