Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, the Senate Republican Conference held their leadership vote and decided that Sen. John Thune (R-SD), who is a relative spring chicken at 63, will take over from the 82-year-old Mitch McConnell in January. As a bonus, his first name really is "John" (McConnell's first name is actually "Addison"). And no one will confuse the upbeat Thune with a turtle.
Thune beat Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL)—who is despised by senators of both parties for being fake and pretending to love Trump (when, in fact, he loves only himself)—and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who is well liked in his conference but is a decade older than Thune. Donald Trump didn't endorse anyone in the race, but his surrogates were openly for Scott. The problem is that the election is by secret ballot. After Scott was eliminated in the first round of voting, Thune won in the second round 29-24. Yes, they let senators-elect vote.
Thune is an even-tempered conventional politician who is well liked by senators from both parties. Even though he has a decent majority, probably 53-47 although the Pennsylvania seat is not 100% certain, he does not have an easy job. The main problem will be when Trump wants him to do something that he knows is fundamentally illegal, against Senate rules, or bad for the country. Then what? As an early example, Presidents need Senate confirmation for about 4,000 positions. Trump wants to skip all that and just install them by fiat. But this would completely gut one of the Senate's key powers. Will Thune, an institutionalist, be willing to turn the Senate into a rubber stamp for a president he doesn't really like very much?
Thune has been in the Senate since 2004, when he defeated then-Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) after arguing that Daschle had forgotten his South Dakota roots and become part of DCworld. In 2028, will Thune go down to a Democrat who will argue that Thune has forgotten his South Dakota roots? Probably not. South Dakota used to be a prairie populist state, but it has become very Trumpy in the past decade.
Trump wants to get going quickly on Jan. 20, so Thune will not have much time to find his footing. McConnell is not retiring from the Senate, just from the leadership, so if Thune needs advice, McConnell will be there to provide it for the next 2 years. McConnell is expected to retire in 2026 and Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) might run for the seat. On the other hand, Beshear may decide to skip the Senate and run for president in 2028 instead. Or maybe both. Demonstrating once again that he can win in red states would be a huge plus point for Beshear in 2028. He could claim to be the second coming of Bill Clinton—a southern governor who can win red states.
Thune will be jumping into the hot seat immediately, with the confirmation hearings of Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard. He knows very well that neither one is even vaguely qualified for the position for which they have been nominated. He also doesn't want to pick a fight with Donald Trump on Day 1 and also doesn't want to neuter the Senate on Day 1. By Jan. 21, he will probably be sorry he won the election as leader. (V)