Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump has now officially nominated Sen. Mario Rubio (R-FL) as secretary of state. We are slightly surprised that Rubio is interested. He is known to be fairly lazy and flying around the world constantly and trying to convince various belligerents to make peace is hard work. Senators have an easy life. They can work hard writing bills and dealing with constituent problems, but they don't have to if they don't want to. Rubio is one of the "cruise control" types.
In any event, Rubio will be confirmed easily. He is an easy-going guy and doesn't have any enemies in the Senate. Every Republican and many Democrats will vote for him. The big question now is what happens to his Senate seat. Whoever Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) picks will have to stand for a special election in 2026.
Various names have been floated. Depending on who DeSantis picks, there could be a chain reaction in Florida Republican politics. One name that Ron DeSantis undoubtedly has on his short list is Ron DeSantis. His term as governor ends in January 2027 and he can't run again in 2026. He still thinks of himself as presidential material, so he has to take that into consideration. In fact, it is factor #1.
If he appoints himself to the Senate, he will lose all his power immediately. Being governor of a big state is a lot more powerful than being at the very bottom of the Senate totem pole. On the other hand, 4 years of Senate experience would be helpful in a 2028 run. The problem is the 2026 special election. Every reporter in the state would ask him: "Are you willing to promise to stay in the Senate indefinitely so you can acquire seniority and do things for Florida?" An answer of "Nah, I'm going to bail and run for president in 2028" may not play well in the 2026 primary against other Republican candidates who pledge to stay in the Senate as long as the voters want them. It would be a risky bet. Of the nine times in the past that a governor has appointed himself to the Senate and had to face a special election, only one of them won the special election. The voters don't like that trick.
One way around that is to appoint a placeholder to serve until the special election, and then for DeSantis to enter the primary and try to get the seat under his own power. That would be more acceptable to many voters. The placeholder could be his chief of staff.
Yet another option would be to name his wife, Casey DeSantis, to the seat. She is not as ambitious as Lady Macbeth, but they are in the same league. She could promise to stay in the Senate indefinitely. However, there are other potential candidates who might challenge Lady DeSantis in 2026 and beat her, especially Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez (R) and AG Ashley Moody (R). And there are various members of the House as well.
Another wrinkle is that Donald Trump may push for his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump. Trump has no love for DeSantis and if there is anything he could do to foil DeSantis, that might be worth a try. Of course, Lara was born and raised in North Carolina and went to college there. She has no real connection with Florida. She would be regarded as a carpetbagger in the special election, despite being an incumbent.
So far, DeSantis hasn't tipped his hand, but in some ways, appointing a placeholder who promises not to run in 2026 might be good strategy since it would allow DeSantis to remain governor for 2 years, then run in 2026 to fill out Rubio's term, which ends Jan. 3, 2029. Then DeSantis could run for president as a sitting senator. (V)