Nov.12

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

News of the Day

The breaking news continues to come at a fast and furious pace:

• Good News for the Republicans: Several outlets, including Reuters, have called the House for the Republican Party. Others, including the AP, have the GOP on the cusp, with 215 seats to the Democrats' 205. Of course, even if Reuters, et al. have it right, that doesn't necessarily mean that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will keep his job. He probably will, since he has the backing of Donald Trump. However, you can never tell what the Freedom Caucusers will do.
  
  
• Good News for the Democrats: Every outlet has called the Arizona U.S. Senate race for Ruben Gallego (D). With 95% reporting, Gallego leads Kari Lake (R), 50% to 47.8%. Since Lake has yet to accept her 2022 gubernatorial election loss, don't hold your breath waiting for her to concede in this race.
  
  Barring something very unexpected in Pennsylvania, the 119th Senate will have 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats/Independents, by virtue of the Republicans having flipped seats in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. If the Democrats are going to take the upper chamber back, it will probably take two cycles. In 2026, the blue team will have to defend seats in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. They will try to poach seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and maybe Florida (see below). Some of those targets are obviously longshots but, for example, if Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) retires, as expected, and Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) runs to replace him, as expected, you never know.
  
  In 2028, the Democrats will defend seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. They will try to flip seats in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina and Wisconsin. If there are back-to-back blue waves—which there well could be, since that is what happened the first time Donald Trump was in office—then it's certainly plausible that across the two cycles, the blue team could net 3-4 seats plus the White House.
  
  
• Staffing the Administration, Part I: Donald Trump has reportedly made his pick for Secretary of State, and it is Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). That could change, given Trump's mercurial nature, but it's solid enough that everyone's reporting it.
  
  In terms of qualifications, Rubio is roughly as prepared for the job as Hillary Clinton was when she was picked. He was never First Lady, of course, but he has served for over a decade on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. That said, he's not as smart as Clinton, nor as hardworking. Should he vacate his Senate seat, it would be up to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to choose a replacement. Don't be too surprised if DeSantis chooses himself.
  
  
• Staffing the Administration, Part II: Trump has also tapped Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) to be his National Security Adviser. Waltz is so hawkish he makes John Bolton seem like a hippie, and is somewhat keen on the notion of going to war with China.
  
  Incidentally, Waltz' district is R+7, so if he gives up his seat, it is not impossible Democrats could flip it. Special elections are wonky, and that race could become a focal point for disappointed Democrats across the nation, not unlike what happened when Conor Lamb flipped the much redder PA-18 in 2018.
  
  
• Staffing the Administration, Part III: This is both the most predictable, and possibly the scariest, appointment Trump will make. Stephen Miller, who is about as far-right as it gets, was named Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy. That is a catchall title that can mean very little, or can mean a lot. In this case, it will mean a lot. Miller is expected to have his fascist fingers (fascgers?) in EVERYTHING, and he'll get his way a lot because he's now one of Trump's longest-serving and most loyal acolytes.
  
  
• Staffing the Administration, Part IV: Trump has picked former representative Lee Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency. They really oughta rename it Environmental Predation Agency for the duration, since Zeldin cares nothing for the environment, and everything for rolling back as many regulations as is possible.
  
  
• Not So Great Scott: There is no question that Donald Trump would like to see Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) become the next Senate Majority Leader. However, the President-elect has thus far declined to formally endorse Scott, or to do any arm-twisting, because he (Trump) does not want to back a loser. Perhaps this speaks to someone who is thinking more tactically than he used to. Or perhaps it speaks to someone who is still overly concerned with appearances and with "winning." Perhaps both.
  
  We can think of two additional reasons why it might not be terribly wise to back Scott. First, Scott tends to say stupid things. If he says those things as SENATE MAJORITY LEADER RICK SCOTT, it kind of sticks the whole party with whatever foolishness issues forth from his mouth. Second, the Senate Majority Leader is the ultimate backroom wheeler-dealer. That's not an easy thing to do properly if, you know, most of your colleagues hate you.
  
  
• Hitler v2.0: We say two things as preface to this capsule: (1) We've gotten a lot of nasty e-mail for daring to describe Donald Trump as a fascist, and (2) You are going to see a lot of "Let's talk to Trump voters and understand their mindset" pieces in the next few weeks and months (and maybe years).
  
  The specimen of that genre that is getting all the attention right now is a piece from The Philadelphia Inquirer. Among the voters the paper talked to is a 45-year-old former construction worker named Matt Wolfson, who said of Trump: "He's good and bad. People say he's a dictator. I believe that. I consider him like Hitler. But I voted for the man." Wolfson also explained that he hopes that, in particular, Trump's Hitler-like qualities will cause him to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars. Hm, seems like someone might want to review their history books, with particular attention to the events of September 1, 1939.
  
  
• Throw the Bums Out: Following major losses in the recent parliamentary elections, Japan's PM Shigeru Ishiba kept his job yesterday, as he was sustained by his fellow legislators, despite the setbacks. Ishiba said he needs to work on better addressing the concerns of angry voters. Sound familiar? We'll have an item tomorrow about the global throw-the-bums-out movement.
  
  
• Sinking Ship?: Chris Wallace, who has been in the news business for 55 years, left Fox a couple of years ago once he was persuaded that the last real journalists had departed that outlet. Yesterday, he announced that his new employer will soon be his former employer, as he will leave CNN by the end of the year. Wallace is not retiring, but guesses, probably correctly, that the real action is in streaming services or in podcasting. He is too polite to note that CNN is now consistently the third-ranked network in the cable news/"news" ratings, and that it's in trouble, financially.
  
  
• Free Hunter: Quite a few folks, such as Ana Navarro, are encouraging Joe Biden to pardon his son Hunter on his way out of the White House. We are entirely in agreement with this. There is virtually no chance that the First Son would have ended up in the legal crosshairs to the extent he has, but for the fact that his father is the president. The son should not have to do time just because of who his father happens to be. Plus, Donald Trump has corruptly pardoned a bunch of far worse guys.
  
  There's also talk that Biden should pull a Gerald Ford, and issue preemptive pardons for anyone close to him who Donald Trump might target—himself, his family, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, etc. We're a little more leery of this, but we absolutely see the argument. It sets a bad precedent and sends a bad message but, on the other hand, these folks should not have to live in fear just because Trump is obsessed with score-settling and revenge.
  
  
• Gen. Tubman: Let's end with something pretty cool. In honor of Veterans Day, the state of Maryland awarded famed abolitionist Harriet Tubman the rank of brigadier general in the Maryland National Guard. She's still not on the $20 bill, but this is a pretty good consolation prize in the interim.

And that's the way it is. (Z)