Dem
47
GOP
53
Democrats will soon be faced with a dilemma. What should they do when Donald Trump proposes something that would be disastrous for the country, or at least for some group of people? There are two battlefields: public opinion and the Senate.
In the battle for public opinion, Democrats can either oppose bad stuff or not. In many cases, opposing it will give them some credibility when it goes south. There is not a lot of downside there.
Republicans are likely to capture the House and if they stick together, can ram anything they want through on a party-line vote. But the Senate is different. If Trump proposes, say, a 100% tariff on all imports from China, the Democrats can choose to either just vote against it or filibuster it. In the former case, it will pass on a party-line vote. In the latter it will be defeated.
Jonathan Last over at the Bulwark argues: Let Trump be Trump. In other words, warn people that what Trump wants will have disastrous consequences, but then say: "The American people voted for this, so they are entitled to get it. That is how democracy works." For example, as soon as Trump imposes tariffs on China, China will impose the same tariff level on soybeans. American farmers sell $35 billion worth of agricultural products to China every year, half of that being soybeans. Once American soybeans are priced out of the market, Brazil will pick up the slack. Then many American farmers (a.k.a. Trump's base) will discover that nobody wants to buy their product. Trump will try to blame China, and some farmers may believe it, but they will still be hurting. Trump could try to give them free money, but there are Republicans in the House who don't like giving anyone free money. It might not work out so well. If Trump puts a tariff on German cars he may be surprised when the Germans put the same tariff on Boeing airplanes, making them much more expensive than Airbus planes. And on and on.
Last also makes another case. The public clamor about immigration forced Joe Biden to ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to do something. So, McConnell assigned a very conservative Republican, Sen. James Lankford (R-OH), to write a border bill. Lankford put in everything on the Republicans' wish list. Democrats got nothing. Nevertheless, Democrats said they would vote for it. However, Senate Republicans refused to pass Lankford's bill on orders from Trump. Were the Democrats rewarded last week for trying to cooperate with Republicans to solve a serious problem? No way. The lesson here is: "Do not expend political capital trying to protect Trump's voters from Trump."
Consider yet another case: Ukraine. If Trump wants to stop helping Ukraine, Democrats should not try to block him. This will allow Putin to capture Ukraine and the little Baltic countries and then get into a serious war with Poland. NATO will fracture. Global markets will be spooked and people's 401(k) portfolios will crash. Democrats should then say: "You voted for him, now you get the consequences. Enjoy."
Similarly, if Trump tries to arrest and deport 12 million people, many of whom have jobs, Democrats should not block him. If this is what the people want, they have the right to get it. The logistical, legal, moral, and economic catastrophe will be monumental. In 2026, Democrats can say: "You wanted to know what electing Trump and giving him a trifecta meant. Now you know. You can't get rid of him but you can get rid of the trifecta. Vote carefully."
If a future HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wants to allow states to ban vaccines and thousands of little children die of measles in Alabama, well, that's Alabama's problem. Just wait until polio makes a comeback in Texas and 1950s iron lungs are back in fashion. The photo below is a man in an iron lung. He has probably been in there for 50 or 60 years because he can't breathe on his own. Now imagine vast rooms full of people in iron lungs in clinics all over the country.
Most people living now cannot believe that the announcement that Dr. Jonas Salk's polio vaccine worked got roughly the same amount of attention as the Japanese surrender during World War II. Having a vaccine was that important.
In short, Last thinks that the brunt of Trump's program will fall on Trump supporters. California, Illinois, New York, and the other blue states will offer free vaccinations to anyone who wants one. Red states will ban them. They can use the money they save on vaccinations to buy iron lungs. Put in other words, until Trump's supporters are exposed to the full consequences of Trump's decisions, they are not going to budge, so expose them. (V)