Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump has been indicted in four jurisdictions, two federal and two state. Jack Smith understands that DoJ policy for over 50 years is that a sitting president cannot be indicted or tried and since there is no way to finish Trump's D.C. or Florida cases before Jan. 20, he is bound by this policy to try to wind down the two federal cases in the best way he can. Trump was lucky. He landed on a "Chance" square and drew a "Get out of Jail Free" card. Smith may try to merely suspend the trials until Trump is no longer president, but even if this succeeds, the new AG could kill that deal.
The state charges are different. Trump was scheduled to be sentenced in New York on Nov. 26, but his election could change that. Judge Juan Merchan could just throw up his hands and abandon the case, although there is no legal reason for that since Trump was duly convicted for a crime that happened before he was president. Certainly, Merchan would be within his rights to pronounce a sentence. A prison sentence is unthinkable, but a fine is possible, even if it is symbolic. Suppose Merchan fined Trump $1,000 on each of the 34 counts, for a total of $34,000. We doubt the Supreme Court would overturn that as unreasonable and it would embarrass Trump to no end if he had to pay up. Plus, he would remain a "convicted felon."
Then there is the Georgia case. DoJ policy does not apply to state cases. Assuming Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis wins the current appeal and is allowed to stay on the case, a likely outcome is that she drops the indictment against Trump but pursues all the other defendants, including Rudy Giuliani. There is no conceivable reason for them to get a pass on this. They can't claim presidential immunity and Trump can't pardon anyone on state cases. Willis fully understands the implications of letting lawbreakers off the hook just because they are buddies with the president. Willis is a real pitbull and has pursued felons even if it takes years. She was reelected last week so she is safe for 4 more years.
On Dec. 5, which happens to be Sinterklaas, a Georgia appellate court will hold a hearing to see if Willis may continue on the case. If the court chastises her for hiring her then-boyfriend as lead prosecutor, but rules that while it had bad optics, it did not violate any law or rule, then she will probably keep going, but without Trump. Locking up all his cronies would definitely send Trump a message. If she is kicked off the case, it is unlikely any other Georgia prosecutor will take it up.
Could Trump pressure Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) to pardon his cronies? Sure, but it wouldn't work. The governor of Georgia does not have the pardon power. That is entrusted to the Georgia Board of Pardons and Paroles. Could Trump pressure them? Sure, but under current law they are not allowed to pardon felons until they have been out of prison for 5 years and have met certain other conditions.
In a related case, Arizona AG Kris Mayes yesterday affirmed that she has no intention whatsoever of dropping her criminal case against the 11 fake electors and a few others a grand jury has indicted. These include Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows. Once again we may see a situation in which Trump gets off scot-free but everyone around him ends up at Club Fed. If Giuliani is convicted in both Georgia and Arizona, does he get to pick which prison he prefers? How does that work? Maybe first come, first served?
Finally, we come to the civil cases in which Trump has been found liable. A jury awarded E. Jean Carroll $88 million for calling her a liar when she said he raped her. NY AG Letitia James sued him for $450 million for defrauding New York banks and won. Both cases are on appeal. There is no legal reason why those cases have to be terminated. Presidents cannot be sued for actions taken as president and based on their constitutional authority. Defaming someone is not one of the president's constitutional duties. Neither is defrauding banks. The clear precedent here is Clinton v. Jones, in which Paula Corbin Jones sued Bill Clinton in 1994 for allegedly sexually harassing her while he was governor of Arkansas. The Supreme Court ruled that nothing in the Constitution protects a president from civil lawsuits while they are in office. And Trump's case is even weaker, because the acts named in James' case all took place before he was president and the trial and adjudication both took place after he left the presidency. For the Supreme Court to let Trump off despite this ruling would mean that the Court has simply gone rogue and doesn't care about the Constitution, the law, or precedent any more. (V)