Nov.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

The First Exit Polls Are Out

NBC News has posted the initial take on the exit polls. Here are a few of the highlights.

• 53% of the voters were women
• 71% of voters were white, 11% were Black, 12% were Latino, and 3% were Asian American
• Trump carried white men 60%-37% and white women 53%-45%
• Trump carried Latino men 55%-43% but lost Latinas 38%-60%
• Young voters (18-29) were 14% of the electorate and seniors were 28%
• 15% never went to college, 26% dropped out, 16% have an A.A. and 43% have at least a bachelor's
• 31% identify as a Democrat, 35% identify as a Republican, and 34% are independent or other
• 23% are liberal, 42% are moderate, and 34% are conservative
• Only 19% have a union member in their household
• Religion: 42% Protestant, 22% Catholic, 2% Jewish, 10% some other religion, 24% no religion
• 22% are white born-again or evangelical Christians, 78% are not
• This is noteworthy: only 54% are married and 46% are single
• Only 8% of the voters are gay, lesbian, or trans
• 31% say the economy is excellent or good, while 68% say it is fair or poor
• 22% say inflation is a severe hardship, 53% say a moderate hardship and 24% no hardship
• How are things going for the country?: 6% enthusiastic, 19% satisfied, 43% dissatisfied, 30% angry
• Top issue: democracy (34%), economy (32%), abortion (14%), immigration (11%), foreign policy (4%)
• What should happen to illegal immigrants already here?: 56% legalize, 40% deport
• Who do you trust more to handle a crisis? 52% Trump, 46% Harris
• Is American democracy secure?: 25% yes, 73% threatened
• Are Kamala Harris' views too extreme?: 47% yes, 50% no
• Are Donald Trump's views too extreme?: 54% yes, 44% no
• When did you make up your mind who to vote for?: 7% last week, 6% October, 7% September, 79% Earlier
• Where do you live?: 29% urban, 51% suburban, 19% rural

What stands out to us?

1. Inflation was a huge issue. Harris should have rolled out more plans to prevent it going forward.
2. Only a quarter of the electorate is liberal; maybe what's left of The Squad should tone it down a bit.
3. Harris lost men badly, along with white women, but won Latinas.
4. Trump narrowly won the suburban vote, 51%-47%
5. Half the voters are single. How do you appeal to that large demographic?
6. A majority of voters think Trump could handle a crisis better than Harris? Maybe we need new voters.

The link above contains far more information than this, including partisan breakdowns on everything. For example 72% of the Protestants and 61% of the Catholics voted for Trump, but Harris carried the Jews, others, and nones easily. Of the people who feel the economy is poor, 87% voted for Trump, despite his only prescription for fixing it being imposing tariffs (which increase inflation). We're no doubt going to come back to the exit polls later, but you get a first cut at the link above. (V)