Nov.08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 46

Ties 2

GOP 52

The News of the Day

As a reminder, we are breaking format today. We're going to run down the main news stories of the day in capsule form, then we'll have some reader comments on the election accompanied by responses from us. The headline theme will be back next week.

If you like, or dislike, the "In Conversation" approach (see below), you should let us know at comments@electoral-vote.com. We might give over another day to it next week, and we might even consider making it a regular feature (just one "In conversation," though, not four like today).

And now, the news of the day:

• Trump Makes His Pick: Donald Trump has made his first important hiring decision, tapping campaign co-chair Susie Wiles as his chief of staff. On one hand, during his first term, Trump changed chiefs of staff frequently. So, maybe Wiles is not long for the job. On the other hand, during his first campaign, Trump changed campaign managers frequently. He didn't do that this time, so maybe Wiles is a Trump whisperer, and won't get cashiered after a little more than 6 months, the way Reince Priebus did last time (he made it 192 days, or 17.4 Scaramuccis).
  
  
• The Spoils of Victory? (Part I): Trump may have made one staffing decision, but from here, it gets harder. It turns out there are way more people expecting plum jobs than there are plum jobs. So, the war is already underway, and it's expected to be bloody.
  
  
• Stuck on You: One job that Trump apparently will not be filling is that of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Although the once and future president ran, in part, against the guy that he himself appointed to the post, campaign insiders say he's not likely to try to fire Jerome Powell. This is not surprising, since Powell has been pretty effective, and Trump would struggle to find someone better. Further, Powell can't actually be fired by the president, so there's also that.
  
  
• Casey Loses?: With 98% reporting, and David McCormick (R) up on Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), 49% to 48.4%, the Associated Press has called the race for McCormick. That said, Casey has refused to concede, and other outlets have declined to make a call. In still-uncalled Arizona, Ruben Gallego (D) is up on Kari Lake (R), 49.8% to 48.1%, with 76% reporting. In still-uncalled Nevada, Jacky Rosen (D) is up on Sam Brown (R), 47.8% to 46.5%, with 96% reporting.
  
  
• The House Is Still in Doubt: At the moment, 212 House seats have been called for the Republican Party, while 200 have been called for the Democrats. It takes 218 to control the chamber, so the GOP is much closer to the promised land. On the other hand, the Democrats had a pretty good day yesterday, flipping three seats (to zero for the Republicans). So, the current total is six flips for the red team, five for the blue.
  
  
• They Are Still Counting: We had numerous readers who wrote in and took us (angrily) to task for writing about the gap between Kamala Harris' vote total and Joe Biden's vote total, since not all of the 2024 ballots have been counted. As of this writing, Donald Trump is a bit over 73 million votes, while Kamala Harris is a bit over 69 million votes. Even once all the votes are counted, Trump is going to be in the ballpark of his 2020 total, while Harris is going to lag Biden by at least 5 million votes, and probably more.
  
  
• A New Breed: San Francisco mayor London Breed has conceded, meaning she lost to a moderate Democratic nepo baby with no political experience, Daniel Lurie (heir to the Levi Strauss fortune). It is a very clear indication that this was a "throw the bums out" election, and not a good time to be an incumbent.
  
  
• Declarations of Independence: In a first for a presidential election, the number of independent voters exceeded the number of registered Democratic voters, and tied the number of registered Republican voters. What, exactly, this means will be a question of much interest over the next few years.
  
  
• The Spoils of Victory? (Part II): Very soon, Donald Trump will have to start dealing with the difference between "campaign promise" and "reality." Already, his stance on immigration is getting mushy. On one hand, he says the deportations will go forward, and he doesn't care about the price tag. On the other hand, he now also says that "We want people to come in," presumably having noticed that the economy, and the businesses of many of his donors, depend on immigrant labor. Oh, and not caring about the price tag might sound good, but might not fly, given cost estimates between $300 billion and multiple trillions.
  
  
• The Spoils of Victory? (Part III): You might think a Trump victory would be good news for Big Oil. And you might well be wrong. Despite Trump's promises to "drill, baby, drill," and his claim that he would reduce gas prices by 50%, the fact is that petroleum producers are already, of their own volition, reducing production. Demand for oil is trending downward, and they don't want to flood the market. The industry also worries that Trumpy tariffs could cut into profits and could cut off access to some foreign markets.
  
  
• The Race Has Begun: Yesterday, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) called for a special session of the California legislature to "Trump-proof" the state's laws regarding things like the environment, immigration and reproductive rights. This is basically political theater that reminds us of two things: (1) California is going to position itself as headquarters of "the resistance," and (2) Newsom is running for president in 2028, and has already commenced his campaign.
  
  
• The Hard Truth: Truth Social still offers the opportunity for Trump fanboys and fangirls to "own" a piece of their hero, the same way the Green Bay Packers sell "stock" in the team when they need to make improvements at Lambeau Field. Truth Social "investments" also potentially allow for people who want to "influence" Trump to (sort of) give him money in a way that is ostensibly legal. Nobody can know how those dynamics will play out over the next 4 years. On the other hand, Trump wants to make money from his DJT stock. It closed at $27.69 yesterday, down from $54.68 as recently as Oct. 29, 2024. How is he going to sell millions of shares without the stock collapsing completely? Does he care more about attention or money? Tough question.
  
  However, one thing that is clear is that the platform's core business, to the extent that it has a core business, is about to take a big hit. Donald Trump's agreement with Truth Social exempts "political communications" from the requirement that the platform gets "first dibs." As of Tuesday, everything he sends out is "political communications." And there is no doubt he will shift over to his buddy Elon Musk's platform, since that is a MUCH louder megaphone. Since Trump is Truth Social's only real product, it is soon going to be a ghost town.
  
  
• Speaking of the Packers: As of this moment, former Packers and current New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is +3000 (30-to-1) to be elected president in 2028, as an independent. Meanwhile, the Jets' odds to win the Super Bowl this year are +6600 (66-to-1). So, he's more than twice as likely to be president than to win the 2025 Super Bowl, apparently. Does this tell us that there are a lot of poorly informed voters out there? That literally anyone can be president these days? That nobody has any idea what the presidential field for 2028 will look like? Maybe all of the above.
  
  
• Bro Fest: In today's least surprising news story, Vladimir Putin said yesterday that he looks forward to talking to "manly" Donald Trump. Putin knows that shallow flattery won't get you anywhere... except with Donald Trump.

And that's the way it is. (Z)