Nov.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 48

   

GOP 52

Reader Predictions

We had a staggering 11,000+ responses to our survey. We don't want to drown people in information, so we'll do demographics later this week, or possibly next week. For now, it's just what the readers have to say about the election. This may actually be the single best predictive exercise you will find anywhere, because there is much value in "the wisdom of the crowd." And while our readership certainly skews Democratic and liberal, it also skews educated and well-informed, and has a demonstrated history of being properly skeptical (or, in some cases, pessimistic).

To start, here's how the readers have the presidential race:

The readers' choices for the swing states imply an EV total of 287 for Kamala Harris, 251 for Trump. The readers' average projection for Harris' EV total was 289.31. Very consistent.

Now on to the readers' predictions for the Senate.

The readers' choices for the Senate races imply 50 Republicans in the next Senate, with the GOP picking up West Virginia and Montana but losing Nebraska. The readers' average projection for Republican seats in the Senate was 50.21. Again, very consistent.

And how about some reader comments? Because we neglected to ask for initials and cities until over 3,000 people had responded, we're just going to forego those entirely (so that we don't effectively throw out thousands of comments):

Harris Has This Thing?

Voting against Trump more than for Harris. Just say no to bullies.

Two predictions: (1) The breadth and depth of support for Harris among women will be greater than polling indicates; and (2) late undeciding voters break for Harris in large numbers, likely due to Trump's erratic behavior in the final weeks.

Three words: Women, women, women.

While taking a walk, I had forgotten that I was wearing a Harris For President t-shirt when I noticed a young, white guy (probably late-20's/early 30's) looking at me. He asked me if I was for illegal immigration and more crime, to which I responded that in fact, violent crime rates have declined. To which his reasoned, informed response was, "No they haven't." I made the tactical error of bringing up women's health issues, including how women had lost their fertility (and some their lives) due to the abortion bans. He practically spat out his question: "Are you a feminist? Everything you've said is about women." I was frankly so taken aback at his response, that it was all I could do to look at him, puzzled, and ask: "Do you have any women in your life?" Suffice to say, he did not like that question, so while I calmly said I was happy to have a civilized conversation with him, he told me he did not want to talk to me and waved goodbye and kept repeating, "Bye, have a nice day" in a tone that was not, shall we say, dripping with sincerity. Only a few minutes later, a young African-American man, around the same age as the white guy, was crossing the street towards me with a smile on his face. I smiled back. He said, "I like your t-shirt." We had a lovely chat, and parted ways, hoping that sanity and competence will win out this election, and not dishonesty, divisiveness, fear, and hate.

Harris will overperform her polls by about 3-4 points. 303 EVs (or maybe more). Pollsters are herding. Just watch.

I have voted in 10 presidential elections and this is the first time I have voted for a Democrat. I think the under-counted Harris vote (like mine) will turn out to be consequential. I also think the near-term future of non-MAGA conservatism depends on it.

Trump has been annoying me since I was 8 years old. I can't wait for him to be gone.

Trump Has This Thing?

I am terrified that somehow the Supreme Court will throw the election to Trump.

I suspect the models overly favor Trump, but too many voters out there just can't accept a woman as president. That is why I think Trump will win, because there just aren't enough shy Harris voters.

Removing Joe Biden will prove to have been a mistake. The Democrats are too weak in how they engage with the press, and they are treated unfairly because of it. Classism within their own party is costing them the working class. Modern day progressivism, ironically, is pushing the working class away from the Democrats.

The Democrats will only have themselves to blame for losing this election and I will point to two specific and obvious actions: (1) By Joe Biden not dropping out a year ago, we didn't have a chance to have an open primary that could have produced a ticket like Whitmer-Shapiro. At the very least they hold the blue wall and win the election. Harris would not even have finished in fifth place in an open primary; (2) When it took until July for Biden to drop out and there was no other choice but to go with Harris, we botched the VP selection. By not going with Shapiro we left PA vulnerable. My prediction is Harris gets 251 EV's and losing Pennsylvania will be the difference. And now my 8-year-old daughter will enter her teenage years with less freedoms than both of my grandmothers had at her age. I hope I'm wrong.

Your site is so horribly slanted left it's completely unreliable and you should either get on the Trump Train or leave America.

State-Level Predictions

The Iowa poll from Ann Seltzer is a really interesting last-minute data point, but my take is that Donald Trump's saber rattling around tariffs and restarting trade wars has farmers and rural voters in the breadbasket really spooked. They remember the hard times in soy markets, particularly the last time Trump pushed tariffs on commodities. It's not Trump's age, racism or general unfitness for office that is going to push away his base of conservatives—it's mostly policies that affect THEM directly (i.e., the "he's not hurting the people he is supposed to be hurting" crowd).

It all comes down to Pennsylvania and Trump ekes it out. The "Should've Picked Shapiro" screams will be loud and endless.

Our 22-year-old son works for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, and I've seen firsthand the intense ground efforts they're putting in. The energy is incredible, with busloads of people arriving from other states to support. The group is predominantly young, and they're executing the plan with precision. If the Pennsylvania Democrats don't succeed, it won't be for lack of effort.

I live in Nevada... last election there were Trump caravans and pickups with Trump flags everywhere. Thus far, no caravans and I've only seen one pickup with a Trump flag. There's also no one selling Trump merch where they used to.

I drove from Northern California to Arizona to help get out the vote for Democrats. When I told people what I was doing, they all said the same thing: Don't get shot. Sad.

I promise/guarantee you, Kamala will win Georgia, and lose North Carolina. The closeness of Flori-duh will be shocking. That is my area. This makes me question all the polls, they are off. Younger people don't have landlines and don't answer their phones; I don't know how you get accurate polling anymore.

Other Comments

Ireland doesn't have room for all of us, so we need to stand firm and NEVER AGAIN let the Republicans gain control of anything.

The rule of thumb is a good GOTV is worth 1 to 3 points. Abortion should be worth 2-5 pts. Legalized Jane should be worth 2-5 pts, Liz Cheney folks voting for Harris should be worth 2-5 pts. Among other things I do not understand is the polls having it 50/50. To counter all these pluses it means the racism and anti-female slant of the electorate is 10 pts. plus. If such is true, I am very disappointed in my fellow Americans.

This election may sink the credibility of polls for good.

You have mentioned it before but I think it is worth mentioning again. The gender divide is having very real consequences this election while most attention is given to young women moving to Democrats, a great many men are moving to Republicans including young men. This isn't going to just have political effects but also social as it builds a wall between the sexes. It will deepen as women only fields and men only fields become the norm. I am a local Democrat and have been the only man in a room of 30 Democrats. Yes women being excited is amazing for Democrats but it isn't translating to young men.

My daughter is 27 and I can't help but see every Trump voter as a threat to her future.

I hope the scapegoating of trans persons goes down in flames this year. (Please!)

Why is every presidential election these days more important than the last? Can't we have a low-key race for once?

Thanks to everyone who participated! (Z)