Nov.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 48

   

GOP 52

Expert Predictions

You can see above what our method says about the outcome in each of the 50 states and in D.C., along with the overall result. However, let's do a quick review of how other psephologists have it on the last day of the cycle. We'll focus on the 10 swingiest states in our tipping point chart. These are listed from most blue to most red:

The number in parentheses in the final row is toss-up EVs, from those sources that did not predict every state.

This certainly looks a lot better for Trump than when we did the same exercise 4 years ago. That said, a lot of the projections are based on tiny margins (for example, the Hill gives Trump the nod in Wisconsin by 0.3%, 48.7% to 48.4%). And nearly all of the projections are based on margins within the standard margin of error (generally 3%-4%).

Meanwhile, there is the very real possibility the polls are out of whack this year. The first six columns are all folks who aggregate polls (as we do). If the input is not good, the output is not going to be good. Put another way, garbage in, garbage out (and despite what Tony Hinchcliffe thinks, it is not going to Puerto Rico). On the other hand, the two gut-feel columns (Cook and Sabato) have Harris ahead. We will soon learn which approach is the better one, it would seem. (Z)