Dem
48
GOP
52
It has been an article of faith among political operatives for years that a Democrat needs to win the popular vote by about 3 points to win the Electoral College, which tilts toward the Republicans due to the disproportionate effect of there being more medium-sized red states than there are medium-sized blue states. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%, but fell short in the Electoral College. But this year, there are signs that things could be different. Is it possible that Kamala Harris could win the popular vote by a very small margin, or even lose it, and still get at least 270 electoral votes? Maybe.
What happened? Republicans have made gains in California, New York, and Florida in recent years. That might get them more popular votes and House seats, but it doesn't flip any of those states, so it won't buy them any extra electoral votes. Narrowing the popular vote margin doesn't help unless entire states flip. Part of the changes are due to how different groups are identifying. Oddly, Harris is not doing as well with minority voters as Joe Biden, but she seems to be improving with white voters. Politicians aren't the only ones who are weird.
That small shift could work in her favor because the three Blue Wall states are very white, and winning them could be enough, even if she loses the more diverse Sun Belt states and even if she loses the popular vote. If Harris wins the popular vote by the same amount Hillary Clinton did, she stands a good chance of winning the three Blue Wall states and the election, but even if she does so badly among minority voters that she loses the popular vote, she could still win the very white Rust Belt states and the election.
One scenario where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the election is by his really running up the score with Latinos in California, Arizona, Texas, and Florida but doing less well with whites in the Rust Belt. This would upset all previous models, but it is a real possibility. (V)