Nov.04

electoral-vote.com

Dem 48

   

GOP 52

How Would Recounts Work?

If some of the swing states are close, there could be recounts. The rules vary by state. Here is a quick summary of how it works in the swing states. Older readers may remember Florida in 2000 and how that went.

• Arizona: Candidates can't request recounts in Arizona. State law determines when they are done. Under current law, a margin of under 0.5% between the top two candidates forces an automatic recount. In 2020, the threshold was 0.1% but the legislature raised it since then. In practice, if either candidate wins by about 17,000 votes or more, there will not be a recount.
  
  
• Georgia: Unlike Arizona, candidates in Georgia can request a recount within two business days of certification if the difference between the top two is 0.5% or less. Election officials may also ask for a recount if they think there is a need for one. The secretary of state can also order one if he believes there is good reason for one.
  
  
• Michigan: If the difference between the top two candidates is 2,000 votes or fewer, there is an automatic recount. However, if a candidate has a good-faith belief that he or she would win in a recount, the candidate may request a recount. Can you imagine the state Supreme Court having to rule on what a "good-faith belief" is? We can. Can you imagine what the testimony might be like? We cannot. But anyone hawking Trump Bibles outside the courthouse would make out like a bandit.
  
  
• Nevada: There are no automatic recounts in Nevada, but any candidate who wants one can request one within 3 days of certification. However, that candidate has to pay for the recount.
  
  
• North Carolina: Recounts are automatic if the top two finishers differ by 0.5% or less. However, if three voters in a precinct demand a recount of that precinct, they are entitled to it. Expect there to be a recount in every precinct that Donald Trump loses. Experience shows that recounts rarely change the total very much.
  
  
• Pennsylvania: Like several of the other states, there is an automatic recount if the winner's margin of victory is 0.5% or less. As in North Carolina, voters can force a recount in any precinct if they suspect fraud or error. Expect many such recounts.
  
  
• Wisconsin: Any candidate can demand a recount, but if the candidate lost by more than 0.25%, the candidate has to pay for it. If the margin is less than 0.25%, the state pays for it. In 2020, Trump requested a partial recount and had to pay $3 million for it. It didn't change anything and he still lost.
  

Will we see recounts? If it is close, probably. Note that in most states a recount cannot be requested until the vote is certified. At the very least, there are psychological effects here. Once the secretary of state has declared that someone won the state and it is official, many people are going to be inclined to believe that. In the court of public opinion, once the vote has been certified and the media are reporting the results, the challenger becomes the underdog. (V)