Dem
48
GOP
52
Only seven states seem to matter this year, although Ann Selzer's poll of Iowa suggests many more may be in play. It wasn't always like this. For 100 years, Missouri was the ultimate bellwether, voting with the presidential winner 25 of 26 times from 1904 to 2004. Now it is a deep-red state and the only national politician campaigning there is Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), who doesn't have to campaign very hard since he is a shoo-in in deep red Missouri.
Many of today's safe states (like Missouri) were once swing states and vice-versa. Zachary Wolf at CNN dusted off old election data back to 1976 and compiled a list of states that were won by less than 5 points, meaning they were probably seen as competitive during the election. Here is the list:
| Year | Democrat | Republican | States won by the Democrat by <5% | States won by the Republican by <5% |
| 2020 | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | AZ GA MI NV PA WI | FL NC |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Donald Trump | CO ME MN NV NH | AZ FL MI NC PA WI |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Mitt Romney | FL OH VA | NC |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain | FL IN NC OH | MO MT |
| 2004 | John Kerry | George W. Bush | MI MN NH OR PA WI | CO IA NV NM OH |
| 2000 | Al Gore | George W. Bush | IA MN NM OR PA WI | FL MO NV NH OH TN |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton | Bob Dole | AZ KY NV TN | CO GA MT NC SD TX VA |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | George H.W. Bush | CO GA KY LA MT NV NH NJ OH TN WI | AZ FL NC SD TX VA |
| 1988 | Michael Dukakis | George H.W. Bush | NY OR WA WV WI | CA IL MD MO NM PA VT |
| 1984 | Walter Mondale | Ronald Reagan | MN | MA RI |
| 1980 | Jimmy Carter | Ronald Reagan | HI MD MN WV | AL AR DE KY ME MA MS NY NC SC TN WI |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter | Jerry Ford | HI MS MO NY OH PA TX WI | CA IL IA ME NV NJ NM OK OR SD VA WA |
Some of this is familiar, Some of it is not. Here are the states that swung at least four times since 1976: WI (8), NV (7), NC (7), FL (6), OH (6), PA (6), MN (5), VA (4), TN (4), OR (4), NM (4), NH (4), MO (4), and CO (4). Wisconsin was in eight times and Nevada and North Carolina each seven times, so they are historically swing states. But Minnesota, Virginia, Tennessee, Oregon, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Colorado certainly are not anymore. Stuff changes.
Which safe states will be swing states in 20 years? Maybe Florida will swing back to competitive? Maybe Texas? In the long term, maybe every state will be locked down and no state will be competitive. If that happens, the party with the fewest electoral votes will start lobbying for eliminating the Electoral College and perhaps we will get an Amendment calling for a direct popular vote for president. (V)