Dem
49
GOP
51
Remember that if a candidate really is at (or above) 50%, they have reached a version of the promised land. That means their opponent cannot just win by winning undecideds, they have to actually steal away some decideds. The latter task is considerably tougher than the former. (Z)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | Ruben Gallego | 48% | Kari Lake | 44% | Oct 28 | Oct 30 | Noble Predictive Insights |
| Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 48% | Mike Rogers | 39% | Oct 16 | Oct 24 | U. of Mass. |
| Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 48% | Mike Rogers | 45% | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | George Mason U. |
| Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 52% | Mike Rogers | 46% | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Marist Coll. |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 48% | David McCormick | 42% | Oct 16 | Oct 23 | U. of Mass. |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 50% | David McCormick | 48% | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Marist Coll. |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin* | 51% | Eric Hovde | 48% | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Marist Coll. |