Dem
51
GOP
49
Judge Juan Merchan instructed the 12 jurors in Donald Trump's hush-money trial and they began deliberations yesterday. How long they will take is up to them. The first juror selected has been appointed as the foreperson, so no time need be wasted as the jurors campaign for the job. That person has the opportunity to lead the discussions, but not everyone is a natural-born leader. If things go astray quickly, two of the jurors are lawyers and one of them might be able to right the ship to get on with the job. The jury did not reach a verdict yesterday and will continue deliberations today at 9:30 a.m. ET. Given that there are 34 separate counts, each of which requires a verdict, it is not surprising that one afternoon wasn't enough time to finish the case.
Since there is an impenetrable wall between the jurors and the outside world, reporters have taken to reporting about the room. It is just off the courtroom, painted municipal blue (that is not a compliment), and has a table big enough for 12 people surrounded by rolling chairs. There are two bathrooms because deliberations can take days, even weeks, and sometimes jurors just can't wait that long. There is a court officer standing guard outside. On the table is a buzzer the foreperson can use to summon the officer to hand him or her a note to bring to the judge, for example, asking for a clarification about the evidence or the law. Once the officer enters the room, all the jurors must immediately stop talking. There is also a laptop computer in the room that contains all the exhibits presented during the trial. The jurors are free to use it as they wish, but playing Minecraft is frowned upon. If one of the jurors dies, becomes sick, or is unable to continue for any reason, one of the alternates will be called on to join the jury. Being an alternate is probably a terrible job, even worse than being vice president or Prince Harry.
While deliberations are going on, the defendant, the judge, and all the lawyers must hang around. With the judge's permission, they can play with their phones. Reporters are allowed to leave, but woe be to any one who leaves and then the jury returns and announces the verdict while he or she is gone.
Suppose Trump is convicted. Then what happens? He will have to go to the probation office on the 10th floor of the courthouse building for a presentencing interview. He will be asked about his personal history, his mental health, and the circumstances that led to his conviction. It is reported to be humiliating. But the report goes to the judge and can affect the sentence, so he can't blow it off. First time offenders, like Trump, often get a fine rather than prison time, but New York Mayor Eric Adams said that if the judge sentences him to prison, Rikers Island can handle it. Maybe Trump could get the U.S.S.S. to park his plane at LaGuardia. It's only about 1,000 feet from Rikers to the airport. Then he could look at his plane. Unfortunately, the 1,000 feet consists of the East River and Trump is in no condition to swim 1,000 feet. A conviction would not disqualify Trump from running for president or serving. In any event, he has a total of 7 months to file an appeal and would certainly file it on the last day. Then the appeals court could take weeks or months to make a decision and that decision could be appealed to the New York Court of Appeals. A final verdict could be years away.
But the Court of Public Opinion often moves faster than the New York State courts. If a quarter of the Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley long after she dropped out say this is the last straw and decide not to vote in November, that could have a noticeable effect on Trump's chances.
If you want a brief rundown on all the jurors and alternates, here it is. (V)