Dem
51
GOP
49
Punchbowl News talked to a bunch of Republican senators, and all of them said, in various ways, that they are going to keep the Senate filibuster even if Donald Trump is returned to the White House. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), for example, declared: "The day that Republicans vote to nuke the filibuster is the day I resign from the U.S. Senate. That is how strongly I feel about it." Several of his colleagues were similarly firm in their convictions.
We think they are actually telling the truth. Yes, politicians lie, and Senate Republicans tend to be particularly truth-challenged. However, the modern Republican Party is predominantly obstructionist. They don't want to DO things, they want to STOP things from getting done. The filibuster is a very important part of their toolkit, especially since it's generally more plausible for them to control the Senate than the White House or the House of Representatives. It's the Democrats who tend to be hurt by the filibuster, not the Republicans.
Speaking more specifically, what are the things that Senate Republicans actually care about when it comes to getting things done? There's not too much, since again, their primary agenda is obstruction. They do care about tax cuts, but those can be done with reconciliation, leaving the filibuster in place. They care about approving right-wing judges, but that can be done with the judicial carve-out, leaving the filibuster in place. It is possible that they might want to shoot for something on abortion, but it's unlikely there are 50 Republican votes for anything on that front, since Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Susan Collins (R-ME), etc. are not likely on board. So, killing the filibuster would not help on that front, while keeping it in place would allow Senate Republicans to say, "We really WANTED to do something, but we didn't have 60 votes to overcome those infernal Democrats."
Put another way, what was the last time Senate Republicans were seriously hindered by the filibuster? It has to be at least a decade, and maybe two or three decades (note that the Obamacare repeal was also a reconciliation issue, and so was not affected by the filibuster). It's true that Donald Trump, if reelected, could demand that the filibuster be abolished. But he did that in 2017 and in 2018, and Senate Republicans refused. So, the filibuster is likely safe unless the Democrats kill it. (Z)