Dem
51
GOP
49
Virginia is not among the states casting primary ballots next week, but it does have primaries for the House on June 18. The state has a couple of districts that are actually competitive (VA-02 is R+2, VA-07 is D+1) and another trio that are on the cusp of being competitive (VA-01 is R+6, VA-05 is R+7, VA-10 is D+6). It's VA-05 that people will be watching on the 18th, but not because it's vaguely competitive.
No, VA-05 is the district represented by Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), the chair of the Freedom Caucus. Good has committed two political sins. The first is that he led the movement to oust Kevin McCarthy. So, McCarthy's allies are now gunning for him. The second is that he endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) for president. Good eventually switched to Donald Trump, but that's not good enough. And so, the hardcore Trumpers, including Trump himself, are gunning for Good, too.
Yesterday, the former president took to his boutique social media platform to blast Good, decreeing that the Representative is "BAD FOR VIRGINIA AND BAD FOR THE USA." Get it? Good is BAD? The Trumpers and the McCarthyites are both backing state Sen. John McGuire (R), who is ultra-Trumpy and who never once cast a vote against McCarthy's speakership. So, he passes the only tests that matter.
Interestingly, although this is Good's third election for the U.S. House, it's his first primary. Previously, he was nominated by a district convention—which Virginia law no longer allows. There has been no polling of the race, as far as we can find, but McGuire's state Senate district overlaps with VA-05 by quite a bit, and he's pretty popular. Add in the Trump factor, and our guess is that McGuire knocks Good off. (Z)