Dem
51
GOP
49
An initiative that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the state Constitution is likely to be on the Arizona ballot in November and certain to be on the ballot in Florida. Polling from YouGov suggests that they will both pass. In Arizona, the "Yes" vote is 65% to the "No" vote of 21%. In Florida, it is 60% to 20%. The 60% favorability in Florida is important because only measures that get at least 60% pass. In Arizona, a simple majority is enough.
Will the initiatives bring young voters to the polls? That is something the Democrats are fervently hoping for. Democratic politicians understand this and most of them in states with abortion initiatives are going to be prominently supporting the measure. What is also important is how much abortion is restricted in those states. In Florida, abortions after 6 weeks are illegal. In Arizona, it is 15 weeks. Count on Democrats to point this out a few times. Will this be enough to turn Florida blue? That is a steep hill to climb, but the combination of the initiative and a toxic candidate running for the Senate in Arizona could certainly put Arizona in the blue column. (V)