Dem
51
GOP
49
Three more states' voters will be casting their primary ballots today, but there's really only one race anyone is paying attention to. That is the Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Maryland, which will decide which candidate wins the right to face popular former governor Larry Hogan (R) in the general election.
Democratic candidate #1 is Executive of Prince George's County Angela Alsobrooks. Her main advantage is that she is the candidate of the Democratic establishment, and she has been able to utilize that liberally. That is to say, every Alsobrooks speech, rally, etc. includes at least a few high-profile Democrats, some of them from within Maryland, some from without. She's a touch more liberal than the alternative, and is also Black, in a state that has a higher percentage of Black residents (32%) than any save Mississippi, Louisiana and Georgia.
Democratic candidate #2 is Rep. David Trone, who is wealthy by virtue of being co-founder and co-owner of Total Wine & More, a company with $6 billion in annual revenue. So, his main advantage is that he can self-fund. Thus far, on the primary, he has spent at least $51,413,130, as compared to $5,875,228 for Alsobrooks. Those figures are as of April 24; Maryland politics-watchers think that in the home stretch, he has probably turned what was a 9-to-1 advantage into a 10-to-1 advantage.
So, who is going to win? Who knows? Here are all the polls of the race we can find conducted since April 1:
| Pollster | Date Range | Alsobrooks | Trone | Net |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | May 2-9 | 39% | 34% | Alsobrooks +5% |
| Emerson College | May 6-8 | 47% | 44% | Alsobrooks +3% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | April 8-10 | 40% | 43% | Trone +3% |
| OpinionWorks | April 7-10 | 38% | 50% | Trone +12% |
What can you say about that? Alsobrooks appears to have some momentum, but that OpinionWorks result has to have her worried. And there are so many undecided voters...
Now, let us imagine you are a Democrat who cares primarily about holding the Senate, and you want the candidate best able to defeat Hogan. Well, you can take your best guess as to which matters more: money, or appealing to Black voters in a state that is nearly one-third Black. But if you want some data, there have also been a handful of polls that test both possible matchups. Here are the last five such polls:
| Pollster | Date Range | Alsobrooks vs. Hogan | Trone vs. Hogan |
| Emerson College | May 6-8 | Alsobrooks +10 (48%-38%) | Trone +11 (49%-38%) |
| PPP | May 6-7 | Alsobrooks +9 (46%-37%) | Trone +10 (47%-37%) |
| OpinionWorks | April 7-10 | Hogan +18 (36%-54%) | Hogan +13 (40%-53%) |
| Goucher College | March 19-24 | Hogan +4 (40%-44%) | Hogan +1 (42%-43%) |
| Braun Research | March 5-12 | Hogan +14 (36%-50%) | Hogan +12 (37%-49%) |
Well, that's not too helpful, is it? Maybe both of them can beat Hogan, or maybe... neither of them can. Trone has a slight numerical edge, we suppose, but he probably also has greater name recognition by virtue of already holding federal office and his massive outlays. Since the numbers are not especially instructive, we're back to demographics vs. money. Well, unless you think the Democratic muckety mucks know what they're doing, and know which candidate is more likely to win. If so, then recall they are almost universally lined up behind Alsobrooks. (Z)