Dem
51
GOP
49
There were two very interesting pieces on Joe Biden's reelection campaign that were not meant as companion pieces, and yet kind of work that way. First up is an op-ed written by Mark Penn, who was a key figure in the Bill Clinton presidential campaigns, and who now runs the Harris Poll. Under the headline "Biden Is Doing It All Wrong," Penn writes:
President Biden appears behind in all the swing states and his campaign appears all-too-focused on firming up his political base on the left with his new shift on Israel, a $7 trillion budget, massive tax increases and failing to connect on the basic issues of inflation, immigration and energy. By pitching too much to the base, he is leaving behind the centrist swing voters who shift between parties from election to election and, I believe, will be the key factor deciding the 2024 race.
Penn had a number of prescriptions for Biden '24. Here's his commentary on Israel:
Mr. Biden's campaign has fundamentally miscalculated on Israel. Those Haley voters are strong defense voters who would back ally Israel unreservedly and I believe want to see a president who would be putting maximum pressure on Hamas to release hostages. By pandering to base voters with no choice, Biden is pushing the Haley vote to Trump and so his first instincts on Israel were both good policy and good politics. Eighty-four percent of independents support Israel more than Hamas in the conflict and 63 percent believe a cease-fire should occur only after the hostages have been released. The more Biden has pandered to the left by softening his support of Israel, the weaker he looks and the more his foreign policy ratings have declined. Rather than pull decisively away from Israel, Mr. Biden should instead find a plan that enables Israel to go into Rafah and that has enough precautions for Rafah's civilians so the American president can back it.
We're not sure that advice is all that insightful, since pushing for a Rafah invasion plan that protects civilians appears to be what the administration is already doing.
The second piece, meanwhile, is courtesy of Nicholas Grossman at The Bulwark. Under the headline "How Much Will Gaza Affect Joe Biden's Re-election Chances?," Grossman lays out an argument that is very well supported with lots of data, and that basically comes down to two things. The first is that polls show that even among young people, the Middle East is very low on the list of major concerns, with things like inflation, healthcare, abortion and protecting democracy far higher. The second is that since things have gone south in the Middle East, Biden's approval rating hasn't changed much, either among the public in general, or among young voters. Grossman's ultimate conclusion is this:
PROTESTERS AREN'T POLICYMAKERS. They don't need to know all the nuances of a situation to conclude that it's bad, and don't need a well-articulated plan for fixing it before they demand improvement. But framing Biden's Middle East policy in electoral terms raises the question: Is it possible for Biden to win back the voters he's lost with a change in policy?
For a contingent on the left, one that's especially vocal online, the answer is probably No. If someone currently believes it would be immoral to vote for the politician they've been calling "Genocide Joe," they will likely think so later this year, too. The war might be over by the fall, but even in the best-case scenario, Gaza will likely be in crisis, with food and medicine shortages, and problems of governance.
If the Americans accusing Biden of genocide by proxy already largely disapproved of him before the Israel-Hamas war—because he's too old or too moderate or for any other reason—then no plausible adjustment in his stance on Israel-Palestine is likely to satisfy them.
In short, both writers are proposing that Biden should stay the course and stick with a firm, pro-Israel position, as that is where the largest number of votes is to be had.
We pass these commentaries along because they are worth considering, though we're not entirely sure we buy them. We think it is possible that, consistent with the item above, Netanyahu has become problematic enough that it's concerning to a much greater number of voters than was the case a month ago, or 3 months ago. After all, Vietnam was unpopular with a small minority... until it was unpopular with a majority. It is also the case that even if Biden can't win the votes of protesters back, having them be a source of chaos and disorder throughout the summer would be a bad overall look for him and his leadership.
In any event, this is why we've asked readers to share their thinking as regards voting and the current tensions in the Middle East. It's not a scientific sampling, but it may help to illuminate the dynamics a little. (Z)