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On the whole, the news is not getting better for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. There were a couple of big stories over the weekend that spoke to the corner he has painted himself into.
First up is news that was initially reported by The Times of Israel. Apparently, there are serious tensions right now between Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Netanyahu. And the problem is that Netanyahu, in Halevi's view, has no strategy for what he is trying to accomplish in this war.
To be more specific, the IDF has conquered a number of territories (like, say Jabaliya) and has dismantled the Hamas infrastructure in those places. However, because there has been no indication of what governing authority is supposed to succeed Hamas, there is nobody to hand authority over to. So, the IDF leaves, and... Hamas reestablishes itself. This forces the IDF to retake the same territory again... and again. Last week, we shared our view that "there was no clear win condition (or, at least, no achievable win condition) in Vietnam, and that seems also to be true in Gaza right now." Halevi clearly agrees with us, and he is in a way better position to know than we are. He also said that if the IDF does not get clear instructions as to what the plan is for the endgame, then the task he and his troops face is "Sisyphean."
And it's not only Halevi who has grown snippy. Shin Bet (Israeli intelligence) chief Ronen Bar, who is subordinate to Netanyahu, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who is not, have been meeting to discuss strategy. When Netanyahu found out about these meetings, he blew a gasket, and said such discussions should only be held in his presence. Gallant fired back, and said: (1) if there are to be strategic discussions, then he (Gallant) needs to be prepared, and (2) it doesn't really matter right now, because "you (Netanyahu) don't hold these deliberations." Another person who seems to agree with us, and who is in a way better position than we are to make such a judgment.
Meanwhile, the shift in the Biden administration's posture—which we have been expecting for months—continued apace this weekend. Secretary of State Antony Blinken appeared on several of the weekend news shows to opine on the Middle East, and he didn't have much flattering to say about Netanyahu. The Secretary had several choice observations: (1) that Israel appears to have violated international law with its use of American armaments, (2) that the U.S. wants to see "credible plans for security, for governance, for rebuilding" in Gaza, (3) that there better not be an invasion of Rafah until such plans are in place, and (4) that if Israel stays the course it's charting right now, it will be "holding the bag on an enduring insurgency."
Returning to the Vietnam example for a moment, the Lyndon Johnson administration (and the Richard Nixon administration) managed to keep that war going for a very long time, even after people within the administration and without began pointing out that there was no real plan to end the war. And maybe Netanyahu can dance that dance for a good long time, too. However, we are inclined to doubt it. First, once an American president is in office, they can't be removed for 4 years, except by impeachment. An Israeli PM, by contrast, could see his ministry fall at any time, particularly when his governing coalition is as shaky as Netanyahu's is. Second, the U.S. did not need money or armaments from other countries to fight the Vietnam War. Israel does require these things to fight Hamas. So, it would be our guess that a reckoning of some sort is coming for Netanyahu much more rapidly than it did for Johnson or Nixon. (Z)