Dem
51
GOP
49
We're just shy of 6 months to Election Day, and thought we'd do a bird's-eye view of where the presidential election stands. So, here are the major polling aggregators' averages of national preference polls:
| Aggregator | Trump | Biden | Net |
| FiveThirtyEight | 41.3% | 40.6% | Trump +0.7% |
| The Hill | 44.6% | 44.4% | Trump +0.2% |
| 270toWin | 42% | 41.2% | Trump +0.8% |
| The Economist | 44% | 43% | Trump +1% |
| RealClearPolling/RealClearPolitics | 46.1% | 44.9% | Trump +1.2% |
There can be no doubt Trump is ahead. And because of the Electoral College, Biden really needs to win the popular vote by at least 3 points. So, he's got some ground to make up, it would seem.
That said, the hill that Biden needs to climb isn't all that steep, especially when 10-20% of voters are not committed to either candidate, as yet. There's also the possibility that the polls are overestimating Trump's support, either due to overcorrecting for the "shy Trump voter" effect, or due to undercorrecting for increased Democratic turnout, due to the abortion issue. There are also the known unknowns, like what will happen with Trump's trials, Trump's VP choice, what will happen with Israel, and what will happen with the economy. And, of course, the unknown unknowns.
Oh, and as we've pointed out a thousand times, a week in politics is a lifetime. That would make 6 months approximately 26 lifetimes. The point here is that Trump is nominally in the lead, but it's far too close a race to know what will happen in November. Which means, if nothing else, we'll have a lot to write about between now and November. (Z)