May08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Hoosiers Head to the Polls

The good people of Indiana, who get very unhappy if we slip up and call them Indianans, headed to the polls yesterday. Here are the most interesting results:

• President: Yet again, Nikki Haley pulled in about 1/5 of the Republican primary vote (21.7%, in this case). Indiana has a partly open primary, so there could be some ratf**king here, but this result is pretty consistent across all states, even those with closed primaries. What those Haley voters do in the general will be a big story on Election Day.
  
  
• Governor: Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) decided he would like to replace the term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb (R-IN). It's been a tough campaign, and Braun was dogged by stories about his financial ties to China. However, he easily won the nomination with 39.6% of the vote (nearly 18% more than his nearest competitor in the multi-way primary). He is now going to be elected governor, given that the state is very red and hasn't elected a Democrat as governor since 2001. Braun's central campaign plank is that he's going to be tough on crime. By the standards of Indiana, a state not exactly known for being soft on crime, that probably means bringing back public flayings and the Iron Maiden.
  
  
• U.S. Senate: Valerie McCray easily won the right to be the Democratic standard bearer, claiming 68% of the vote. She is a Black woman who is basing her campaign on abortion access. That is a pretty good match for next-door Illinois, not so much for Indiana. So, barring some sort of miracle, she's going to lose to Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN). Incidentally, about 180,000 people voted in the competitive Democratic Senate primary, And about 600,000 people voted in the competitive Republican gubernatorial primary. You see the problem for McCray.
  
  
• IN-01: There is exactly one congressional district in Indiana, among the nine there, with a PVI that is NOT in double digits. That's IN-01, which is essentially Chicago suburbs, and so is D+3. The incumbent, Rep. Frank J. Mrvan (D-IN) was unopposed, though apparently not having to campaign still did not give him time to find the missing vowels from his last name. He found out yesterday that he'll face off against Lake County Councilman Randy Niemeyer (R), who looks like Alex Jones, and whose platform is a collection of platitudes: "[S]top the rising taxes and inflation, cut the red tape hurting small businesses, bring back public safety, and restore American energy independence." He's one of the few major-party candidates for federal office we've ever seen whose website did not have an "issues" page. We don't love his chances.
  
  
• IN-05: This district is not competitive (it's R+11), but it had a competitive Republican primary because of the "I'm retired... just kidding" Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN). She got a little bit of a scare from state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-IN), but in the end knocked him off, 39.1% to 33.2%. So, she's going to win and serve another term.

Not too much, and yet more news than you might expect out of what is essentially a one-party state. Three more states take their turns next week: Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia. (Z)