Dem
51
GOP
49
The newest poll from ABC News/Ipsos came out this weekend, and it has some very interesting numbers. Among all adults nationwide, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden 46% to 44%. Among registered voters, Biden leads 46% to 45%. And among likely voters, Biden leads 49% to 45%.
ABC describes the variance between the "all adults" result and the "likely voters" result as "not a significant difference." We wouldn't quite put it that way. It is true that a 1- or 2- or even 4-point gap is within the margin of error for most polls. However, when the conditions being compared involve the same set of respondents, then there's a pretty good chance that the numbers are capturing something real.
If Biden is doing significantly better among people who definitely plan to vote, there are at least two possibilities that suggest themselves. The first is that because of realignments in the electorate, the most reliable voters (seniors, middle-class suburbanites, educated people) now skew Democratic, while some of the less reliable voters (non-union, non-college whites) now skew Republican. The second is that, due to abortion, Biden supporters are more committed to getting to the polls this year than Trump supporters.
We do not propose that either of these theses is true, as there just isn't enough hard evidence yet. What it really is, more than anything, is a reminder that until voters' intentions become clearer, this race is simply too close to meaningfully predict. That applies to people who say right now that they are undecided/third-party, but it also applies to people who are loyal partisans but may or may not vote.
Incidentally, we sometimes get e-mails about why we're tracking the polls if we don't have much confidence in them right now. One answer to that is that it's better than putting nothing at the top of the page. But the other answer is that while the polls might not be terribly predictive at this point, they do give some sense as to what might move the needle. When Joe Biden gave a solid SOTU, or if he makes a major policy announcement on Israel, or Donald Trump is convicted of a crime, or chooses his running mate, we can get a sense of how those things are affecting the race. (Z)