Dem
51
GOP
49
Joe Biden is a religious man and frequently goes to church. He hasn't posted his prayers on the White House website, but we suspect he is asking God for a small favor: Smite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is not only prolonging the war in Gaza for political reasons, but is also an obstacle to peace in the Middle East. Biden and Saudi Arabia's de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) are very close to a deal to work together on security in the Middle East to counter Iran. All that is needed is for Israel to end the war in Gaza, stop the settlers in the West Bank, and accept a two-state solution. But Netanyahu is in the way.
There have been several news stories in the past few days that do not give one hope for peace, and that do not speak well for the Israeli government. In chronological order, the first involves Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose extremist rhetoric would put John Bolton or Stephen Miller to shame. For example, last week, he decreed "There are no half measures. Rafah, Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat—total annihilation. You will blot out the remembrance of Amalek from under heaven—there's no place under heaven." The latter portion of that is a reference to the Book of Deuteronomy, and a battle in which the Amalek, who are described as enemies of Israel, were wiped out entirely. Needless to say, for those of us who have argued that Israel is not committing genocide, such verbiage does not help the case.
Next up, again in chronological order, is the news that the War Cabinet has granted Netanyahu and Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi authority to shut down any foreign news outlet they see fit, and they have promptly used that power to shut down the Israeli bureau of Al Jazeera and to seize all of that outlet's equipment. The explanation given is that Al Jazeera is a "mouthpiece for Hamas."
There is little question that Al Jazeera has been critical of the Israeli government, but the outlet is known for being primarily investigative and analytical, and tends to be critical of... everyone, including Hamas (see here and here for a couple of examples). And Al Jazeera has a stellar reputation internationally, on par with just about any news organization in the world. So, shutting them down, even if justifiable—and we have not seen the evidence that it was, and that the outlet crossed the line—has a decidedly Putin-esque odor to it.
And finally, the third and biggest story is that ceasefire talks have broken down again, and Israel is now preparing to launch its planned offensive against Rafah. The basic deal was reportedly that Hamas would return the hostages it has taken in exchange for an end to combat operations, and that framework was rejected by the Israeli War Cabinet.
As we have noted many times, this subject—which has become shockingly relevant to American politics—is way outside our area of expertise. That said, the great majority of American voters are no more expert or informed than we are. And we cannot avoid the conclusion that the War Cabinet is just not interested in ending this war. We think it likely that the majority of Americans will reach that conclusion soon, if they haven't already. That's also the view of Haaretz, which is certainly staunchly anti-Netanyahu, but is also way better informed than we are. In a piece published this weekend, reporter Yossi Verter writes:
"Hysteria for political reasons," Minister Benny Gantz termed the statement issued over the weekend by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (also known as "the diplomatic official"), in which he reiterated that with or without a temporary pause in the fighting for the release of our hostages, "We will enter Rafah and eliminate the remaining Hamas battalions."
Later, before the end of Shabbat, Netanyahu sent another announcement, in which he denied reports saying Israel had agreed to a cease-fire as part of a deal.
Gantz hit the nail on the head this time. Netanyahu is fleeing from a hostage deal. The closer it gets, the faster he runs to avoid it. At least twice in recent months he has sabotaged the sensitive moves toward a deal, whether through public statements or covert messages, or by curbing the mandate of the negotiating team. It was no different this time.
This was not the only article of this sort that Haaretz published this weekend.
Thomas Friedman of The New York Times has astutely noted that MBS and Netanyahu have traded places. MBS has put all his extremists in prison. Netanyahu has put his extremists in his cabinet. MBS' priority is not war or eliminating Israel. He wants to build up the Saudi economy so the country will do well even when oil is no longer important in the world. Friedman has earlier said that peace will not come to the Middle East until there is regime change in three countries: Israel, Iran, and Palestine. The leaders of the former two have no interest in peace and the leader of the Palestinian Authority, the 88-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, is more corrupt than Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) plus Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) to the fifth power.
The day may soon come that Biden decides that it is either the politic thing, or the right thing, to pull back from the current Israeli government. What happens if he announces, for example, that "I continue to be a firm friend to the people of Israel, but I cannot aid and abet a government that will not seriously consider peace." Then what? For what it is worth, the news also broke this weekend that the White House put a hold on an arms shipment bound for Israel last week. Nobody knows why yet, but that's the first time that has happened since hostilities broke out on October 7 of last year. (V & Z)