May03

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Ron DeSantis: Moby Dick, Meet Captain Ahab

Speaking of people who look to be done once their term as governor is up, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has emerged from whatever rock he was hiding under, and is ready to take on the white whale of presidential politics once again. To that end, he has firmly attached his lips to Donald Trump's posterior, and is working to raise lots and lots of money for Trump and for other Republican candidates for office, like Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX).

Politicians tend to be "What's in it for me?" types of people, and DeSantis is certainly not an exception. He is not helping these people because it gives him the warm fuzzies, he's doing it because he believes that no matter what happens with Trump in this election, DeSantis 2028 is looking like a very realistic possibility. So, the Governor is making his moves.

There is a small problem here, though, and that is that it's not too common for a wannabe presidential candidate to come back from the dead, after mounting a failed presidential bid. On the Republican side of the aisle, we count only four occasions in the last 60 years that someone has been frustrated in their first run for president, only to come back and claim the nomination in a subsequent election:

1. Richard Nixon (1960, 1968): This is the obvious parallel for DeSantis, as Nixon also had a reputation for being a little shady, was also bad at retail politics, and was also a poor public speaker. And indeed, Nixon managed to reinvent himself, with the "New Nixon" coming back to win election after a stinging defeat 8 years' previous.
   
   That said, while DeSantis might be a Dick at heart, we find it implausible that he could follow the Nixon playbook. First of all, Nixon actually got the nomination in 1960, and nearly won that election. DeSantis had nowhere near that level of success this year. Second, Nixon's pitch in 1968 was "elder statesman who has serious foreign policy chops and knows how to deal with the Cold War and the Vietnam War." DeSantis has neither the foreign policy experience nor the foreign affairs crises to run on in 2028. Third, Nixon went away for nearly a decade, which was time for people to forget about some of his negatives. It was also time enough for the Republican Party to be left without a clear leader. DeSantis is clearly plotting a 4-year plan, which is probably not enough time for people to forget his missteps. Further, even if Trump is not running, he'll likely still be alive and so will still be the leader of the Republican Party. And Trump is not likely to be supportive of Ron DeSanctimonious, fundraising or no.
   
   
2. Ronald Reagan (1976, 1980): Big-state governor takes his shot, learns some lessons, and takes a second, successful shot 4 years later? That's DeSantis' exact battle plan. But Reagan didn't lose the 1976 nomination because he was a weak candidate, he lost it because he was up against an incumbent president. Further, St. Ronnie had a number of things going for him in 1980, among them his enormous charisma and his great television presence, not to mention an unpopular incumbent to run against. DeSantis has no charisma and no presence, and there is not likely to be an incumbent on the ballot in 2028, as the person who wins in 2024 will be term-limited.
   
   
3. John McCain (2000, 2008): McCain tried it out in 2000, but ran into the Bush Family Express. Then he added an extra 8 years to his time as a U.S. Senator of national stature, and managed to overcome a pretty weak field on his second go-round. Oh, and he was also a war hero. DeSantis might draw a weak field in 2028, but he's not going to spend all of the next 4 years making national news. And while he's a veteran, he's not a war hero. Not a lot of combat decorations go to folks in the JAG Corps.
   
   
4. Mitt Romney (2008, 2012): Finish a respectable second, then come back as the heir apparent 4 years later? That probably also sounds pretty good to DeSantis. However, DeSantis did not finish a respectable second this year; he was a clear-cut third behind both Trump and Nikki Haley (who will surely also be back in 2028). Further, nobody really sees DeSantis as inevitable, whereas plenty of folks felt that way about Romney '12. And even then, Romney had to wait out several months' worth of flavor-of-the-month frontrunners—Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, etc.—before he was finally able to land the nomination.

It is certainly possible that DeSantis will come up with a new and inventive approach, and will find a way to come back from the wannabe-presidential dead. But he's got a tough hill to climb and, in his career thus far, he's shown limited tactical skill and almost zero imagination. That's why we are inclined to see DeSantis 2028 as nothing more than Ahab taking another stab (another harpoon?) at Moby Dick. (Z)