Dem
51
GOP
49
The Dobbs decision has shaken up a lot of things. It is going to force Donald Trump to take a position on abortion that is going to alienate a lot of voters, both Democrats and Republicans. It may also cut into Trump's small-donor fundraising, right at a moment when Joe Biden is outraising him and much of the money Trump is raising is funneled directly to his lawyers.
But abortion is also hitting other races, and in unexpected ways. Some state constitutions have wording about abortion or things related to abortion, such as privacy and health care. Many groups are bringing abortion-related cases to state courts, which end up in the state Supreme Court (or the equivalent). Some legislatures, including Florida's, are passing abortion-related laws, which also usually end up in the state Supreme Courts.
As a consequence, in states where Supreme Court justices are elected, their campaigns are now forced to take positions on abortion, something they never needed to do before. When a justice is campaigning somewhere and a reporter or citizen asks: "Does our state constitution allow abortions?," an answer of "Beats me. Gotta go read the damn thing sometime!" is not going to fly. Consequently, abortion politics is about to pervade judicial politics, as it did last April in Wisconsin. Since more people favor access to abortion than oppose it, it is going to be increasingly difficult for conservative or Republican candidates to win state court positions.
Case in point: Montana. Two seats on the state Supreme Court are up this year. Abortion is going to play a huge role in those elections. The races are ostensibly nonpartisan, but that isn't going to fool anyone. For example, former U.S. Magistrate Judge Jerry Lynch, who is running for chief justice, is clearly a liberal, while prosecutor Cory Swanson, his opponent, is clearly a conservative. Similarly, state judge Katherine Bidegaray, who is running for the associate justice seat, is a liberal, while her opposition, Dan Wilson, is a conservative. An activist group is trying to get an abortion measure on the ballot and it is likely that the state Supreme Court will have to take a whack at it, sooner or later.
Montana is interesting due to not only the two Supreme Court seats and the possible ballot initiative, but also the hot U.S. Senate race. But it is not the only state with a Supreme Court race. In fact, 33 states have at least one state Supreme Court seat on the ballot, and even more states have at least one lower court position on the ballot. These used to be sleepy races, but they will be front and center this year, especially in states where the races could flip the "partisan" balance on the Court. No doubt all candidates are keenly aware of the Wisconsin race last April when now-Justice Janet Protasiewicz won by 11 points in an evenly balanced swing state, largely due to her belief that the state Constitution guaranteed a right to abortions. These races don't get a lot of national PR, but if your state has one or more of them, keep an eye out. (V)