Dem
51
GOP
49
Donald Trump knows he is going to be pressed on abortion so he is beginning to think of what to say. Usually he goes for a base-only strategy, but his advisers have no doubt told him that about two-thirds of the country would go haywire if he came out for banning abortion entirely. He can't afford that, so he is apparently toying with a ban on abortions after 15 or 16 weeks of pregnancy, possibly with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother afterwards.
We don't think it will go over well. The base wants a ban on abortions after week 0. They see it as murder and you don't allow murder some of the time. Maybe Trump is counting on the abortion zealots having nowhere else to go. They obviously can't vote for Joe Biden, and none of the third-party candidates are in the "no abortions, ever" camp. Still, he will take a lot of incoming fire for saying abortions in the first 4 months are fine. Such a position may also have a serious impact on his fundraising from small donors, many of whom are definitely not going to like this.
On the other hand, Democrats aren't going to like it either. They want abortions legal until the point of viability, which is around 24 weeks. They will scream that Republicans are first going for a 15-week abortion, then next year they will reduce it to 14. Rinse and repeat. This position is probably not going to get any Democrats to switch sides, but it might win a few independents.
Democrats are already planning to make abortion a key campaign issue. If Trump comes out for a ban at 15 or 16 weeks, Democrats in blue and purple states are going to go nuts, since it would take away rights they have now. Not only will they campaign hard, but money will flow to Biden and other Democrats. There is no "good" position for Trump, but he probably has to take some position or Biden will claim he is for a total ban and is just scared to say it. (V)