Dem
51
GOP
49
You have to be careful about these things, because they could always go to pieces at the last moment. But it appears that, a mere 5 months late, Joe Biden and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have hammered out an agreement that will keep the government from shutting down.
The key sticking point that remained in the negotiations was funding for the Department of Homeland Security. Johnson wanted to kick that can down the road, which would have meant stagnant, or even slightly reduced, funding for the department, per the agreement that Biden and then-speaker Kevin McCarthy made last year. However, over the weekend, Biden said he would not sign a short-term funding bill for DHS because there is a critical need for help at the southern border. Johnson eventually yielded on this point, and has agreed to a bill that will increase funding a bit. It's interesting that this is not getting more attention.
At this point, with a potential shutdown just a few days away, there are a couple of big obstacles left. First, Johnson has to deal with the Freedom Caucusers, who are going to be howling mad. He presumably knows he has the votes, with Democrats lining up behind the bill, but there might just be a motion to vacate the chair. You never know with the FCers.
Then, once the House has done its part (assuming it does), the Senate has to approve. Given the tight timeline, unanimous consent will likely be required to get the bill in under the deadline. If one of the senators objects (ahem, Sen. Rand Paul, R-KY), then there may be a brief shutdown, or else a stopgap bill that allows the time necessary for the upper chamber to take care of business. Why would a stopgap bill get through quickly when a regular bill could not? Because there are senators who want to amend the regular bill to address their pet projects/issues, while there would be little point in doing that with the stopgap bill. (Z)