Mar.13

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The Buck Stops Here

Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) has always been unpredictable, and yesterday, he unveiled what figures to be the final surprise of his career in Congress, issuing a statement saying that he is quitting, as of next week. He was already set to retire, but yesterday's announcement moved his departure date up by close to 10 months.

By all indications, Buck's colleagues had no idea this was coming. Even Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said he was caught by surprise. According to Buck, he's jumping ship because the job has become miserable. He described the last year as the worst of his 9-year House career. Say what you will about Buck's politics, he's among the straightest of straight shooters, so he's probably telling the truth.

On a related point, as long as we're at it, the House Republican Conference is scheduled to have its annual "retreat" today and tomorrow, in West Virginia. However, less than half of the members will actually attend. Part of the reason, as many readers will know, is that "retreat" is really just code for "long, boring meeting(s)." However, the attendance for this year's House GOP retreat is particularly bad, for two reasons: (1) The members really don't want to go to West Virginia, and (2) The members largely don't like spending time with each other. This political party is badly broken, Exhibit #392.

Back to Buck, his departure will leave the House at 218R, 213D, which means that Johnson can only afford two defections on votes, assuming Democrats unanimously vote "no." Here's how things will unfold over the next several months:

• The April 30 election of a replacement for Brian Higgins (D-NY) will likely make it 218R, 214D, dropping the margin of error to one vote.
  
  
• The May 21 election of a replacement for Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will likely make it 219R, 214D, setting the margin of error back to two votes.
  
  
• The June 11 election of a replacement for Bill Johnson (R-OH) will likely make it 220R, 214D, keeping the margin of error at two votes.
  
  
• The June 25 election of a replacement for Buck will likely make it 221R, 214D, raising the margin of error to three votes.

Colorado allows local party organs to pick the candidates for special elections, so there will be no primary for Buck's replacement.

In practical terms, the various +1's and -1's probably don't matter that much. Johnson is largely unable to herd the Freedom Caucus cats, and so most of the legislation that has been passed by the House recently has been handled by suspending normal order. That means a two-thirds vote is needed for approval, which in turn means there has to be broad Democratic and Republican support, rendering the FC largely irrelevant. And that is precisely what they deserve. (Z)