Dem
51
GOP
49
OK, admittedly, while Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu have known each other for 40 years, they've never been the best of friends. More like uneasy allies, when necessary. And in the last few days, their uneasy alliance appears to have frayed substantially.
It started, of course, with the State of the Union. Beyond Biden's announcement that the U.S. would be building a temporary pier with or without Israel's approval, he also had a "hot mic" moment in which he was caught telling Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) that he (Biden) and Netanyahu needed to have a "come-to-Jesus meeting."
Netanyahu responded to the remark yesterday, in response to a query from Fox's Will Cain:
I don't know. I'm not familiar with the term, even though Jesus wasn't born that far away from here. I can tell you that if it means having a heart-to-heart conversation, we've had that plenty of times over the 40 years that I've known Joe Biden and over the 12 or 13 conversations that we've had since the beginning of the war.
Readers can reach their own conclusions, but that sounds to us like a guy who feels the need to tread lightly.
However, treading lightly may not be enough. There are two major points of contention that have flared up in the last week, namely: (1) Israeli plans to mount a large-scale invasion of the Palestinian city of Rafah and (2) ongoing difficulties in getting aid to civilians in Gaza. The second problem is probably manageable. The first... less so. Netanyahu says he is determined to move forward with the attack on Rafah, as he claims that is essential to eliminating Hamas. Biden says such an attack would cross a "red line" and would cause him to seriously consider cutting off military aid to Israel. One or the other is going to have to back down, or else there's going to be some big-time drama.
It is possible, of course, that all of this is theater for the benefit of the American and/or Israeli voting public. In particular, we are somewhat skeptical that the "hot mic" accident was really all that accidental. That said, there are four things that suggest to us that the strain in the Netanyahu-Biden relationship is real. The first is that, as we have written numerous times, Biden really needs to distance himself from Netanyahu/Israel a bit, ideally without it being his fault. "I wanted to keep supporting Israel, but I warned them not to invade Rafah and they ignored me" and/or "The Israeli government wouldn't let us get supplies to the poor people in Gaza, and I just couldn't stand for it any longer" are pretty good in terms of moving in the direction of pro-Palestine Americans while minimizing the number of feathers ruffled among pro-Israel Americans.
Second, over the weekend, Biden did an interview with MSNBC's Jonathan Capehart. We could have sworn we read somewhere that the President never does interviews, and yet, there he was. In any case, during that interview, Biden shared his view that Netanyahu is hurting Israel more than he's helping Israel. No "hot mic" moment here; the President knew that remark would be heard 'round the world.
Third, Haaretz is pretty dialed in while not being in the bag for Biden or for Netanyahu (especially not for Netanyahu). And their staff thinks that the tensions are real, and that the U.S.-Israel relationship could be headed for a new, and more chilly, chapter. (Note: That article is behind a soft paywall.)
Fourth, and finally, the U.S. intelligence establishment issued a report yesterday that offers a scathing assessment of Netanyahu's continued political viability:
Distrust of Netanyahu's ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections. A different, more moderate government is a possibility.
The report also says that the defeat of Hamas will take years, if it ever happens, and that Netanyahu's approach to the problem isn't too good. Needless to say, these are not the kinds of things that would be put out there for all the world to read if Biden were preparing to join hands with Netanyahu for a nice chorus of "Kumbayah."
So, this is a situation that could develop rapidly in the next few weeks. In particular, the White House has set a deadline of March 25 for Israel to make sure Gazans start getting supply convoys, "in line with international law." It's entirely plausible that after years of political miracles, Netanyahu's bag of tricks has run out. (Z)