Dem
51
GOP
49
House and Senate negotiators have now done the easy part. They produced six bills that funded part of the government, but these were the relatively uncontroversial parts, including transportation, agriculture, and veterans programs. The package of bills passed the Senate 75-22. The bills passed in part because they were loaded with nearly $1 billion in earmarks, which senators love. It's not just Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) who likes to bring home the bacon, although most senators don't personally castrate the hogs in order to do it.
Funding for the rest of the government runs out on March 22, and those bills are more contentious. In particular, funding for the border, health care, labor, and education will be tough because the parties are so far apart on them. The House Freedom Caucus wants things that have no chance at all of passing the Senate, but in the end Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) seems to be willing to throw the FCers a few bones and just ignore them afterwards and pass the bills with many Democratic votes. If the Freedom Caucus wants to fire him, they are welcome to try.
The thing that could still derail the funding bills is the Democrats' wish to provide money for Ukraine and Israel. The Democrats have tried bills that do and don't have money for the border in them, as well as money for Ukraine and Israel, but the Freedom Caucus wants to block that funding, no matter what, so Johnson is not out of the woods yet.
On the other hand, if Johnson doesn't meet the March 22 deadline, Border Patrol agents and airport security workers would go unpaid. So would IRS employees, which could slow down people's tax refunds. Blocking funding for these people could backfire, as Biden could "apologize" to the country by saying: "I'm sorry your tax refund will be late, but the Republicans are blocking it." Biden is insisting that Johnson stick to the deal that Biden and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy made a year ago. Johnson doesn't like the deal and will try to get out from under it, but Biden will insist. This could lead to a government shutdown. (V)