Dem
51
GOP
49
Imagine a movie about an elderly, liberal, female, Democratic Supreme Court justice who belongs to a demographic minority. Then imagine that she has a serious illness and the Democrats control the White House and the Senate, something they could soon lose. But the justice loves her work and expects to live forever, despite her disease, so she hangs on. It could be a real thriller. It would be great if it could star Ruth Ginsberg playing herself, but unfortunately, she's dead. But maybe some producer could get Justice Sonia Sotomayor to star in it. After all, justices get a 3-month vacation every summer and have nothing to do.
Sotomayor will turn 70 on June 25, right at the end of the Supreme Court's current term. She loves her job but also has a serious case of diabetes and travels with a personal nurse. There is surprisingly little public discussion about the possibility of her retiring in June so that Joe Biden could nominate a young Latina to her seat and have the Democratic-controlled Senate quickly confirm her successor in time for the October term.
Seventy is not a terribly old age these days, but diabetes is a serious illness. Some studies indicate that diabetes can reduce a person's life expectancy by 20 years due to the many potential complications of it, including kidney disease and cardiovascular disease. But everyone expects to live forever and you can't expect people with great power to ever give it up.
Actually, Sotomayor may enjoy her work and certainly takes it very seriously, but she doesn't really have a lot of actual power. She is a member of a three-woman minority of Democratic appointees on the Court and they never get their way unless two of the Republican appointees agree with them, which is pretty rare, at least on the big cases. If she were to retire, she could undoubtedly get a good job as a professor at a top law school and help educate the next generation of lawyers.
If she hangs on, she had better be prepared to hang on for at least 4 years, because the Republicans may well gain control of either the White House or the Senate in November. And if the GOP doesn't get the Senate this November, the 2026 Senate map is just as bad for the Democrats as the 2024 map. If Sotomayor should die between Jan. 3, 2025, and Jan. 3, 2029, the chances of her seat being filled by a Democratic appointee are probably below 50%. Supreme Court justices don't like to be pressured, but we are still surprised this topic doesn't seem to come up in polite company very much.
Needless to say, if Sotomayor asked a friend who is well-plugged in and knows Biden to tell him that she would be willing to retire if he promised to appoint a young Latina, he would probably take the deal and then not renege on it. We'll see in June. (V)