Dem
51
GOP
49
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) has been getting ghastly polling numbers, and has not been raising money. Both of these things point to a candidate who will not stand for reelection, and yesterday she made it official, announcing that she will stand down after one term in the upper chamber.
We still do not understand what the heck went on here. It's one thing to be a maverick in a swingy state like Arizona (see McCain, John), but Sinema seemed to make a point of snubbing her fellow Democrats, many of her supporters, many members of the press, and the people of Arizona in general. All of these things are rather impolitic. And what was the point of becoming an independent if she was still going to caucus with the Democrats, and she wasn't going to run for reelection as a third-party candidate? Might as well have stayed a Democrat.
In any event, her departure, along with that of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), as well as the imminent demotion of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to backbencher status, means that the filibuster is about to lose its three staunchest defenders. It's probably on life support, regardless of which party wins control of the Senate in November. Certainly, the next time one party or the other has the trifecta, it is unlikely to survive.
Once Sinema shared her news, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) decreed that this was great news for Kari Lake (R) who is now, effectively, in a two-person race with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) to replace Sinema. Daines has to say that, but the truth is that pollsters have been polling "with Sinema" and "without Sinema" for months. And in every poll of the race published in the last month, Gallego does better in the "without Sinema" condition. Usually, it's a point or two that he gains on Lake, but sometimes it's more. For example, in the latest from Noble Predictive Insights (not a great pollster, admittedly), Gallego leads Lake by 3 points (34%-31%) with Sinema in the race, but he leads by 10 points (47%-37%) with Sinema out of the race. This also makes sense; a voter who likes a centrist former Democrat is more likely to shift to a centrist current Democrat than a far-right Republican.
Anyhow, Sinema's officially done with politics, and will soon head off to Fox, or K Street, or some other cushy job that pays a lot more money. And this probably drops Arizona down the list of seats in danger. West Virginia is lost to the Democrats, obviously, and Ohio and Montana will be the two most threatened seats no matter what happens. But we'd say Nevada is now at more risk for the Democrats, while Texas and Florida are probably at more risk for the Republicans, than Arizona. (Z)