Mar.06

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Other Results from Super Tuesday

The presidential race is what gets the lion's share of the attention, of course, but there were many other races of interest downballot. Here's a rundown of the ten that most stood out to us:

1. Governor, North Carolina: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC) is a very good primary candidate, as indicated by the fact that he took 64.8% of the vote. He's not a very good general election candidate, as he has a habit of saying things that are nutty, sexist, racist, or all of the above. The Democratic nominee to replace the term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) will, as expected, be AG Josh Stein, who did even better than Robinson did, with 69.6% of the vote. The inoffensive, centrist Stein is the favorite in November.
   
   
2. U.S. Senate, California: In the last couple of weeks, California Republicans really began to coalesce behind former MLB player Steve Garvey, just so they would have someone to vote for in November. And so, it is not surprising he managed to claim the second-most votes in yesterday's primary, 31.8% of them, which is well ahead of Rep. Katie Porter's (D-CA) 14.1%. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) finished with the highest percentage, as expected, at 34%, while Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) did not even break double digits at 6.8%.
   
   This means that Schiff can now book a nice, long vacation so he'll be well-rested when his Senate term commences on Jan. 3 of next year. This is a reverse-Alabama situation, where a Republican can only win statewide if the Democratic candidate gets enmeshed in a major scandal. So, if Schiff is discovered to have dressed in blackface for Halloween one year, or he's caught in bed with Eric Trump, or he decides to share some of his thoughts about "legitimate rape," then yeah, he could lose. But Schiff is a veteran politician who does not say stupid things, or sleep with stupid people, and who has been vetted six ways to Sunday, especially since the GOP would love, love, love to find some dirt on him. So, there isn't going to be an October Surprise. In the absence of that, well, California hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1988, or a Republican to ANY statewide office since 2006. And in the 21st century, Democratic U.S. Senate candidates tend to win by about 20 points. So, congrats on your promotion, Senator Schiff.
   
   
3. U.S. Senate, Texas: With 59.1% of the vote, Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) dominated the competition, and now will face Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the general. In contrast to California, where Steve Garvey is a dead Dodger walking, Allred has a real chance. Cruz is a very unpopular fellow, he will officially be violating a promise to serve only two terms, and Texas is not nearly as red as California is blue. Cruz won his last election by just 2 points (over Beto O'Rourke), and recent polls from UT Tyler and NPA both have Cruz-Allred as a dead heat (41%-41% in the former case, 44%-44% in the latter). Other polls have Cruz up, and he is an incumbent and Texas is still a red state, so he's certainly the favorite. But he's not unbeatable.
   
   
4. NC-01: Republicans got good news in this swing (D+2) district, as Laurie Buckhout (R) claimed the nomination over the much more Trumpy Sandy Smith (R). This is what the establishment wanted, as Buckhout will give Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) a real run for his money, while Smith would have struggled. This is, by the way, the state's only competitive House seat.
   
   
5. AL-01: The first incumbent of the cycle has fallen, as Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) lost his primary. That may have something to do with the fact that his main opponent is also a sitting representative, namely Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL). The two representatives were thrown into the same district when Alabama was forced to redraw its maps to be less racist. Moore will win the very red (R+16) district in a walk in November.
   
   
6. AL-02: By contrast, AL-02, which is de facto the district created in response to orders from the federal courts, is a mess. Since Alabama law requires a candidate to get 50% of the vote to advance to the general, there will be a runoff between two Democrats (Shomari Figures, 43.5% and Anthony Daniels, 22.4%) and another one between two Republicans (Dick Brewbaker, 39.6% and Caroleene Dobson, 26.5%). All of those candidates, except Dobson, are Black, which may just be related to the fact that the new district is 49% Black. Whoever wins on the Democratic side will be the favorite, obviously. Maybe Daniels can get R2-D2 to do some campaigning for him. (Note to editor: Check to make sure this is THAT Anthony Daniels.)
   
   
7. CA-20: This is Kevin McCarthy's old seat. Early in the evening, Vince Fong, who had endorsements from both McCarthy and Donald Trump, was trailing. But he's now up 14 points with 50% of the vote in. The AP hasn't called the race yet, but when they do, it will mean Trump went 6-for-6 with endorsements of non-incumbent candidates on Tuesday.
   
   
8. CA-22: Rep. David Valadao (R) voted to impeach Donald Trump, and his district is bluer (at D+5) than any other Republican-held district. So, people came out of the woodwork to challenge him from the right and the left. Valadao came out on top yesterday, with 33.9% of the vote. He'll face former state Rep. Rudy Salas (D), who took 28.9%. This one will be a barnburner.
   
   
9. CA-47: State Sen. Dave Min (D), who lost to Katie Porter in the 2022 primary, will face former state Rep. Scott Bauch (R), who lost to her in the 2022 general. This swingy district (D+3) is a top priority for both parties, and the race is going to bring in millions of dollars from outside the state. AIPAC spent heavily in the district trying to defeat Min, so maybe its power is not as great as some progressive Democrats feared.
   
   
10. CA Proposition 1: This would significantly overhaul California's approach to treating mental health, particularly among those who are unhoused. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has invested massive political capital in getting this one across the finish line, and has been all over TV for the last couple of weeks. With 42% reporting, the initiative had 51% of voters voting "yes," 49% voting "no." Because those godless pinko commies in the Golden State are pretty tolerant about mail-in ballots, we won't know for a few days if this ends up as a feather in the cap for, or egg on the face of, a presumed 2028 presidential candidate.

Undoubtedly, we will find more to say about Super Tuesday as the dust settles, but those are the big storylines for now. (Z)