Dem
51
GOP
49
A new Siena College poll of registered voters has Donald Trump at 48% and Joe Biden at 43%. Democrats are wetting their pants and pleading for a new candidate. That is not going to happen. Biden is not going to drop out and if he did, the battle at the convention for his replacement would be ferocious. The winner would probably be Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) or Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI). Black women would be beyond furious over Kamala Harris being bypassed, many would not vote, and Trump would win.
Polls this early don't have a lot of value, but there are some warning signs. Only a quarter of the voters think the country is moving in the right direction. Nearly all Republicans think it's not because a Democrat is president. Many Democrats think it's not because they think Biden has done so little. It may not be his fault, but they are still unhappy.
Another warning sign is that 51% of the voters think the economy is poor and another 23% think it is only fair. Young voters are especially negative, with 59% of 18-29 year-olds saying this. These are voters Biden desperately needs. Latinos and noncollege voters also say it is bad. By traditional measures of the health of the economy, it is actually quite good, but the voters simply don't believe it. Biden needs to do something to fix this, but what? Maybe releasing a massive amount of oil from the strategic reserve in the summer in time for it to be refined and gas prices to drop in November would work. For many voters, the price of gas defines the economy.
The poll has another warning sign for Biden: Latinos now prefer Trump to Biden 46% to 40%. They make up 15% of the population, but in a close election every vote could matter. Apparently the Latinos have forgotten (or never knew) that Trump once called immigrants from Mexico rapists and criminals. For some Latino men, Trump's appeal is his oversize personality, which they admire, rather than what he says or the policies he wants. We have written pieces about this in the past.
There is one change in the methodology of this poll compared to previous ones. The poll is conducted on the phone, mostly cell phones these days, and takes 15 minutes. Some people get bored part way through and hang up. In the past, only completed surveys were counted. Starting with this poll, incomplete responses are being included. The reason is that Siena has learned that the people who drop off tend to be younger, noncollege, and more diverse. These people are difficult to poll so a decision has been made to keep and use their data, even if they don't get to the end.
One item in the crosstabs that is a red flag for us is that in the horse-race poll, Trump and Biden are running even at 46% each among women. Among likely voters, Trump is even ahead, 47% to 46%. That is very unusual. Normally there is a huge gender gap that favors the Democrats among women. This might be explained by the fact that the sample was 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 34% independent. That strikes us as having too many Republicans and too many Republican women in the poll.
A YouGov/CBS poll has a similar result with Trump at 52% and Biden at 48%. Some of the crosstabs are interesting. A lot of Biden's deficit is because many more Democrats are critical of Biden than Republicans are critical of Trump. Republicans say: "He's my candidate, flaws and all." Democrats say: "I wanted Biden to do [X] and he didn't do it, so I'm not voting for him." So Biden's job is not to pitch to swing voters, but to get Democrats to understand that while he didn't do everything he wanted, he nevertheless did a lot and if reelected with a working majority in the House and Senate, will do more of the things he originally wanted to do.
Some of the answers to specific questions are mind-boggling. For example, 55% of adults think Biden's policies will make prices go up but only 34% think Trump's policies will make prices go up? It is hard to think of anything Biden is doing or might do that raises prices, but Trump's plans to put tariffs on all imports will certainly raise many prices.
Another dilly: Forty-four percent of respondents think Trump tried to stay in office by illegal means, 35% think he tried to stay in office by legal means, and 21% think he did not plan to stay in office. It's that 21% that makes us think that one in five Americans never pays any attention to the news at all, in any form.
Also, 34% think that democracy will be safe only if Biden wins, 33% think democracy will be safe only if Trump wins, 13% think it will be safe either way, and 20% think it won't be safe no matter who wins. Huh?
One more, this time on which candidate has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president. Among all adults, 26% say only Biden is fit, 43% think only Trump is fit, 6% say both and 25% say neither. We understand the 43% saying only Trump is fit. That is precisely his base. But in effect, something like a third of the Democrats don't think Biden is fit. Have they all taken to watching Fox all day? On physical health, 17% think Biden has it, 45% think Trump has it, 9% say both, and 29% say neither.
A clear message here is that many Democrats have bought into the Republican talking points that Biden is a feeble, demented old man who didn't do anything as president and wouldn't do anything if reelected. DEMOCRATS!
It's a little hard to believe some of these numbers, and it's a little hard to believe Republican talking points have been THAT effective. So we don't put much faith in these polls despite Siena and YouGov being pretty good and not usually biased. Nevertheless, every time there is another poll with Trump ahead, Democrats panic and their fear Trump will win becomes a little more profound. (V)