Mar.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Super Tuesday Is Today

We've spent months waiting and now it is upon us: Super Tuesday. Over a third of the Republican delegates are up for grabs. Most states are winner-take-all. Tomorrow we will almost certainly know who the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees will be. Fifteen states will vote and 865 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be selected. If Donald Trump gets nearly all of them, then he won't quite be at the 50% point, but he will be unstoppable. He can't reach the 50% point until March 12. For Biden, it is March 19.

Here is a list of states that will vote today, the number of delegates the state has, and who may vote in the Republican primary. The delegate count is taken from The Green Papers; other sources have slightly different counts.

All of the above are primaries except Alaska and Utah, which are caucuses. "Uncommitted" is an option in Alabama, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.

For Nikki Haley, this will be do or die. She and her super PACs have spent $96 million so far, to Donald Trump's $60 million. If she ends up winning no states, that is a pretty poor return on investment. A related question is: What will Nikki Haley do if she doesn't win five states today? Or any states? If she is whomped everywhere, she is likely to drop out later in the week. Then what? The big question is whether she will then endorse Donald Trump. Yesterday, she said that she no longer feels bound by her earlier pledge to support the Republican nominee. During the campaign, she has repeatedly said Trump is unfit to be president. If she endorses him anyway, she will expose herself as a huge hypocrite, but in the Republican Party that is often a feature, not a bug. If she is planning on running again in 2028, she probably has to endorse Trump this year to have a chance in the 2028 Republican primaries. But if she gets the 2028 nomination, the juxtaposed clips of her calling Trump unfit and then endorsing him could be deadly in the general election.

If Haley refuses to endorse Trump, or worse yet, endorses Joe Biden, she will go down in history as a brave person, but she will never again hold public office as a Republican. That is asking a lot from any politician. But she could refuse to endorse him, leave politics, get some corporate board seats, and go around giving six-figure speeches. It is a viable life, albeit outside electoral politics. And if she endorses Biden and he wins, she could well be rewarded with a Cabinet or other position in Biden II. She could even make a deal with Biden now in which they agreed what position she would get in return for her support if he wins.

One thing Haley won't do is run on the No Labels ticket. She rejected that option yesterday. So far, No Labels doesn't seem to have a candidate. The group promised to make a decision about going forward with its plans in March, but so far it seems to be flailing because nobody of note wants to run on its ballot line.

In five states—Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas—state and local offices are on the ballot Tuesday. The biggie in the state races is California, where the battle for second place in the Senate race will determine whether Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) has to campaign this year. If Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) comes in second, the two will gouge each other's eyes out in the coming months. If Republican Steve Garvey comes in second, Schiff can spend the rest of the year in D.C. doing his work as a representative and not bothering to campaign. Texas is slightly interesting, since there are nine Democrats on the primary ballot for that U.S. Senate race. However, Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is favored. There are also many competitive House primaries in Texas.

In North Carolina, the gubernatorial primaries are interesting. On the Democratic side, AG Josh Stein has raised more money than any of the other candidates and is the overwhelming favorite. The Republican side is much more interesting. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC), a Black Army veteran and extremely outspoken Trumpist and all-purpose bigot, wants a promotion. He is running against state Treasurer Dale Folwell and lawyer Bill Graham. If Robinson wins, Stein can break out the champagne as Robinson will be an easy target in November. All Stein will have to do is make ads featuring Robinson speaking. There is plenty of material. A Robinson victory could also affect the presidential election. Trump carried the state by about 1% in 2020, but Stein could have coattails that help Joe Biden. The Republican primary in NC-01 is also important, as NC-01 is the only competitive district in the state. (V)