Dem
51
GOP
49
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is desperately trying to increase his tiny (two-seat) House majority in November. And he is doing it in a novel way: He is trying to get Donald Trump to avoid blowing winnable races. There have been more recent examples than you can shake a stick at of races that favored the Republicans that were lost because Trump endorsed some far-out MAGA candidate who could win a primary but couldn't win a general election. What Johnson is actively trying to do now is stop Trump from endorsing people with a "candidate quality" problem. This is hard for Trump because the kinds of candidates he loves often have a "candidate quality" problem. Asking him to reject Trumpy election deniers for the good of the party is not an easy sell, but Johnson is trying anyway.
For example, OH-09 is an R+3 district in northwestern Ohio that has been represented for 42 years by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH). She is the longest-serving woman in either chamber of Congress ever. Republicans really want to knock her off this time. She is a pro-life economic populist with a conservative disposition and is an excellent fit for the district. In 2022, the Republicans nominated a Trumpy firebrand, J.R. Majewski, who lied about serving in Afghanistan. Stolen valor is not a winning approach in the working-class district. Kaptur beat him by 13 points. He started to run again, behaving in his usual way—for example, calling athletes with mental disabilities in the Special Olympics "retarded." Trump contacted him. Saturday, Majewski dropped out, putting the district nominally back in play. There is still a Republican primary, between former state Rep. Craig Riedel and current state Rep. Derek Merrin, but neither is as deeply flawed as Majewski. It looks like Johnson's approach of getting Trump to realize supporting people with a "candidate quality" problem is bearing fruit, tough as it may be for Trump's ego. Johnson's pitch to Trump has no doubt been something like: "If the Democrats control the House, they are going to impeach you every month. We need to make sure this doesn't happen."
Another example is NC-01, a D+2 district currently represented by Rep. Don Davis (D-NC). Johnson is backing retired Col. Laurie Buckhout against Sandy Smith, a Trumpy firebrand who ran and lost in 2022 amid allegations that she tried to run over her husband with her car. Johnson's super PAC has already spent $200,000 backing Buckhout and he really doesn't want Trump to ruin it by backing Smith.
Johnson has a wishlist of candidates he wants Trump to endorse or not endorse. The problem is sometimes that other MAGA Republicans oppose the Speaker's wishes. For example, Johnson wants Trump to endorse the not-so-Trumpy Rep. Mike Bost (R-IL) in the primary even though Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has endorsed Bost's much-Trumpier opponent. Johnson is walking a fine line here, asking Trump to reject Trumpy candidates for the sake of the Party. Trump is not one to take one for the team with grace. Johnson is arguing that Trump is smart enough to make the right choices, but history shows that is not generally a correct assumption. (V)