Dem
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GOP
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The Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli attack on Gaza is affecting the Democratic primaries big time. On the one hand, progressives are demanding a ceasefire and opposing any candidate who is not calling for one. Arab Americans in Michigan are extremely unhappy with Joe Biden and threatening to stay home in November, which could cost Biden that important swing state and the election.
But there is also the other side of the coin. AIPAC is planning to spend $100 million to replace progressive Democrats with centrist Democrats by attacking the progressives and funding the centrists in the Democratic primaries. From the point of view of the Democratic Party, this might not be a bad thing since in many districts, centrists are more electable than progressives. Also, in districts that are blue enough to elect Progressive Democrats like Reps. Jamaal Bowman (NY, PVI D+20), Cori Bush (MO, D+27), Ayanna Pressley (MA, D+35), or Rashida Tlaib (MI, D+23), any Democrat who is on the ballot will win. No Republican has a prayer in any of those districts.
Among Squad members, Bowman and Bush are top targets, mostly because their Democratic primary opponents are well funded. Bush, for example, had $215,000 at the start of this year while her opponent, St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell (who is also Black) had $400,000. AIPAC recruited and has funded former Westchester County Executive George Latimer to challenge Bowman. Latimer is white, Bowman is Black, but the district is 37% white, 33% Black, and 23% Latino.
AIPAC funding is also playing out in over a dozen other districts. Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) is retiring from the House to run for the Senate. There is a huge primary battle for her swing seat in Orange County between state Sen. Dave Min and lawyer and community organizer Joanna Weiss. AIPAC is showering money on Weiss and attacking Min. The ads are clever. They don't talk about his position on Israel, but focus on his night out last May at the expense of some lobbyists and his drunken driving arrest on the way home.
The Democratic leadership of the House has not criticized AIPAC, probably because it is also making large donations to Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Pete Aguilar (D-CA), and other leaders, as well as to many members of the Progressive Caucus, Black Caucus, and Hispanic Caucus who have not criticized Biden or Israel. On the whole, AIPAC money is not going to hurt the Democrats at all, although it may change the composition of the Democratic caucus in the House. AIPAC is the largest PAC contributing to Democrats. It is not against Democrats at all, just against Israel-skeptical Democrats. This is not entirely surprising since the vast majority of American Jews strongly favor the Democrats and wouldn't want to do anything to hurt the Party's chances. (V)