Dem
51
GOP
49
Depending on when you read this, it may be old news already, but the Supreme Court has said it will release an order at 9:30 a.m. ET today. Prof. Rick Hasen of UCLA, a leading election expert, wrote that this is a huge break in protocol and he believes the only conceivable reason is that the Court will announce that Donald Trump is eligible to run for president, despite having participated in an insurrection. He believes the Court wants to get this out there before the voting begins on Super Tuesday. The specific case for which it heard oral arguments is about Colorado, and Colorado votes tomorrow, so it was now or never and the Court chose now.
Hasen says that the main thing of interest is the Court's reasoning and whether it creates more problems than it solves. There are various off-ramps that might clear up ambiguities and not cause future problems. One is to rule that Sec. 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment is not self-executing and Congress must first pass a law clarifying the procedure. A second is to rule that until a person has been found guilty in court of participating in an insurrection, then the person is presumed innocent and can't be considered an insurrectionist. A third is to use the actual wording of Sec. 3, which starts: "No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States ..." The Constitution does not literally ban anyone from running for office, only holding an office. So technically, an insurrectionist could run for office, just not be sworn in. Presumably if an insurrectionist won but couldn't be sworn in, then the procedure to be followed would be the one dealing with the case that the winner of an election died the day before inauguration. Maybe the Court can think of something else, but Hasen is absolutely sure this break in protocol can only mean that it will not block Trump from running. We will see whether the decision is 9-0 or whether there are dissents. (V)