Jun.24

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

It's Debate Week!

The stars have aligned in such a way that this week's presidential debate could be the most impactful in recent memory. Maybe the most impactful ever. So, we'll probably have an item each day this week, running down that day's storylines. Here's the first round:

• Paging Captain Obvious: Mitch Landrieu, who is one of the many Biden campaign co-chairs, appeared on Meet the Press this weekend. And he hinted that the President just might bring up Donald Trump's criminal conviction. Gee, you think?
  
  
• Physician, Shut Thyself Up: Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX) spent the weekend belaboring the Republican talking point that Joe Biden uses drugs before the debates—either Adderall or cocaine—and that he should therefore submit to a drug test both before and after the debate. Before... and after? Does he think the President is going to snort a line backstage during the commercial break? If so, the Representative seems to have confused Biden with Donald Trump Jr.
  
  It is exceedingly unethical for a physician to presume to diagnose someone they have not examined. It is worse when that physician has the gravitas that comes with being a member of Congress, a former flag officer in the Navy, and a former physician to the president. It is worse still when they don't really believe what they are saying, and are just using their "diagnosis" for political reasons. Jackson is an embarrassment to his former profession. Come to think of it, he's an embarrassment to his current profession, too.
  
  
• Resetting Expectations: Meanwhile, Trump and his acolytes spent the weekend trying to reset expectations for Biden. Trump himself continued to note that Biden is a top-notch debater. Trump surrogate and wannabe VP, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), appeared on CNN on Sunday and declared: "The guy's run for office more than a dozen times. He's run for president four times. He's been campaigning since President Nixon was in office. This guy has got the ability."
  
  It is our opinion that these attempts to reset the narrative will not work, for three reasons. First, most of the verbiage (excepting Burgum's CNN appearance) is being delivered to the faithful, who already know Trump won the debate, even before it starts. They're sure of it. Second, the Republicans have spent nearly 4 years tearing Biden down as old and feeble-minded. That's not reversible in a week or two. Third, in order to discount Biden's performance, Republicans are simultaneously arguing that he's the sharpest debater this side of Abraham Lincoln, but also that he's so far gone that he needs drugs to perform. Both arguments are meant to discount his performance, but they are also largely at odds with one another. The GOP really should have picked one of the two talking points and stuck with it.
  
  
• Gobbledygook: As you may know, Trump is in the habit of going off on tangents that are basically nonsensical. We don't usually mention it when it happens because they're frequent enough that they are barely newsworthy. However, over the weekend, the Biden campaign used its Dark Brandon eX-Twitter account to remind people of the weird monologue that Trump unleashed at his rally in Nevada a couple of weeks ago. He was talking about a manufacturer of electric boats in South Carolina:

  So I said, let me ask you a question, and he said, nobody ever asked this question and it must be because of MIT, my relationship to MIT. Very smart.
  
  He goes, I say, what would happen if the boat sank from its weight? And you're in the boat and you have this tremendously powerful battery and the battery is now underwater and there's a shark that's approximately 10 yards over there, by the way, a lot of shark attacks lately, do you notice that a lot of shark?
  
  I watched some guys justifying it today. Well, they weren't really that angry. They bit off the young lady's leg because of the fact that they were, they were not hungry, but they misunderstood what who she was? These people are.
  
  He said there's no problem with sharks. They just didn't really understand a young woman swimming now. It really got decimated and other people do a lot of shark attacks.
  
  So I said, so there's a shark 10 yards away from the boat, 10 yards or here, do I get electrocuted if the boat is sinking? Water goes over the battery, the boat is sinking. Do I stay on top of the boat and get electrocuted or do I jump over by the shark and not get electrocuted?
  
  Because I will tell you he didn't know the answer. He said, you know, nobody's ever asked me that question. I said, I think it's a good question. I think there's a lot of electric current coming through that water. But you know what I'd do if there was a shark or you get electrocuted, I'll take electrocution every single time.

  We added paragraph breaks, which the Biden campaign did not, to try to make it more readable. But the breaks don't help all that much. And watching the video, even if you start a few minutes before this portion, doesn't help either. Trump has previously demonstrated an obsession with shark attacks, which isn't too surprising, since his knowledge of pop culture ends in the 1970s, and the movie Jaws was a huge hit in 1975. He seems to be combining that with a critique of electric vehicles... maybe? We looked on the Internet for people who might have a better explanation, and nobody seems to be able to make sense of it.
  
  In any case, what we will point out here is that the shark sidebar happened when Trump's teleprompter went down. What was the underlying reason that his mind went off the rails? Maybe he was tired. Maybe he was overheated. Maybe it's cognitive decline. Maybe he's the one who uses Adderall to get hopped up, and he took a bit too much. Maybe he just gets overly comfortable when he's among his own people, and starts riffing. We do not presume to know what happened. But we do know he won't have a teleprompter at the debate. So, Trump's people are undoubtedly working very hard to convince him not to let his train of thought wander. Whether or not they are successful could have a big impact on how well he does at the debate.
  
  
• Where to watch: Last week, we wrote that the debate would be on CNN, and that the network would have a livestream that it would undoubtedly post sometime this week. A few readers wrote in and said that other networks are going to simulcast the event. This is probably true, but we cannot get ironclad confirmation, as yet. We have no doubt that all will be revealed by Wednesday night, and so we will make clear which networks are on board then.
  
  CNN has not yet posted its livestream page, at least as far as we can find, though we will note that CNN's stream is a part of Max, so if you have that, you can watch through the Max app/website. Also, C-SPAN is definitely simulcasting the debate, and they most certainly have posted their streaming page. It's here.

And there you have the weekend's storylines.

Also over the weekend, we asked the readership if they would prefer we liveblog the debate, as opposed to doing a write-up after. The response was substantial and it was a massive landslide—we're talking 98% here. And what that 98% said was "stick with the write-up." Many readers explained their (very solid) reasoning. For example, reader A.H. in Newberg, OR:

My $6.45

There is enough live commentary out there on every other website and cable channel as well as the blogosphere. Electoral-Vote.com does analysis and write up exceedingly well (IMHO), stick with what you do best.

Side note: $6.45 will buy you a Venti Hazelnut Latte with non-fat milk and whipped cream on top at Starbucks, but that is for GAWD. I will stick with Electoral-Vote.com and a classic Oregon Kraft IPA.

If anyone tells you inflation is no big deal, just point out to them that "my two cents" is now "my $6.45." That's an increase of 32,250%! Anyhow, we chose A.H.'s response as an example because it was short and pithy. Other respondents pointed out that liveblogging is only useful for people who are going to watch the debate in real time, or that it doesn't allow for broader conclusions to be drawn, or that it's hard to pay attention to a debate AND a liveblog at the same time.

With that said, there is at least one reader who said it might be nice to have an online chat with other readers. If that is of interest to you, here are the details provided by that reader, B.J. in Arlington, MA:

I suggest that the interested readership of this site have a live chat during the debate. I've created a chat room on Slack for this purpose. Anyone can join via this invite link: https://join.slack.com/t/electoralvote/shared_invite/zt-2l6nlrjd3-kIg6wVCXMn75AP~eByMTEQ

When you sign up, set your "display name" to your initials and location, like on the Electoral-Vote.com weekend posts, so we can recognize each other and also to preserve everyone's privacy. For example, I've set mine to "B.J. in Arlington, MA."

After accepting the invitation to join the chat room, join the #debate-june2024 channel. The direct link to that channel is https://electoralvote.slack.com/archives/C079ASY9EBU. I'll be in the room on Thursday, as soon as I get my kids to bed (which may or may not be by 9:00 p.m. ET).

We hope that some readers find that option appealing.

Also, there were several requests to do something along the lines of "debate bingo" again. That's possible, but we could use assistance in two ways. First, if you have ideas for what the bingo items should be, please send individual suggestions or lists to comments@electoral-vote.com, ideally with subject line "Bingo Squares." Note that the suggestions should be things that are reasonably likely to come up, and that are basically indisputable when they do happen. For example, "Biden cabinet member mentioned by name" or "Someone says 'MAGA.'" Also, note that we would need these suggestions by Tuesday at 11:59 p.m. PDT in order to pull things together in time.

The second thing we could use help with is if a few readers were willing to watch the debate for when the squares are actually checked off. If you're up for that duty, let us know at comments@electoral-vote.com, ideally with the subject line "scorekeeping."

More debate news tomorrow, undoubtedly. (Z)