Jun.24

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

There Are Some High-Profile Primaries Tomorrow

Another round of primaries is nigh, and there are some biggies this week. (V) normally writes these previews, but given his current travels, it's up to (Z) to take a crack at it, so keep your fingers crossed. Here we go:

• Governor, Utah: Gov. Spencer Cox (R-UT) is reasonably popular, is a member of the LDS Church and is an incumbent. We mention his primary, against state Rep. Phil Lyman (R), because it's the only gubernatorial primary this week. However, it's not going to be interesting. Cox is going to crush Lyman. The only question is if the margin of victory will be in the 30s, the 40s or the 50s. If you are a Utahn, you can't even give yourself some excitement by wagering on how big the margin will be, because Utah is one of only two states that does not have any form of legalized gambling (Hawaii is the other).
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Utah: Since the gubernatorial race is a given, as are the House races, the Senate Republican primary is the only Utah contest this week that's actually interesting. Why? Because Donald Trump has endorsed Mayor Trent Staggs (R-Riverton), but the polls give Rep. John Curtis (R-UT) a lead of between 18 and 34 points. The polling of congressional races is notoriously imprecise, but it's rarely THAT imprecise. Trump has been making very safe picks this primary season, and so if his candidate here goes belly-up, it will actually be his first failed endorsement. Not a huge surprise in Utah, which is the least Trumpy red state.
  
  
• It's Up to You, New York...: Control of the House could well hinge on New York State, since the Democratic legislature's less-than-effective adventures in gerrymandering resulted in eight districts that are competitive (PVI from D+5 to R+5). Here's a brief rundown:
  
  

  District	PVI	Occupant
  NY-01	R+3	Nick LaLota (R)
  NY-02	R+3	Andrew Garbarino (R)
  NY-03	D+2	Tom Suozzi (D)
  NY-04	D+5	Anthony D'Esposito (R)
  NY-17	D+3	Mike Lawler (R)
  NY-18	D+1	Pat Ryan (D)
  NY-19	EVEN	Marc Molinaro (R)
  NY-22	D+1	Brandon Williams (R)

  
  As you can see, if the Democrats can get even a smallish blue wave going, they could flip four or five seats. On the other hand, if there's a smallish red wave, they could lose a couple.
  
  We are going to try to write up all of these primary contests on Tuesday night, but there are quite a lot of them. And we know we have a lot of New York readers. So, if anyone has any comments or insights about these races (or any of the ones being contested on Tuesday), please do let us know at comments@electoral-vote.com.
  
  
• NY-16: Nobody doubts this district will be represented by a Democrat in the next Congress, since it is D+20. The question of which Democrat is of enough interest that a new record has been set for the most spending on a House primary (it's up to about $25 million). The core issue here is Israel; current occupant Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) takes the critical-of-Israel view. His opponent, Westchester County Executive George Latimer (D), takes the not-critical-of-Israel point of view, and has been backed by AIPAC, the pro-Israel super PAC, to the tune of almost $15 million.
  
  Bowman appears to be getting desperate. He asked a prominent Jewish constituent for a picture of them together, to illustrate that Bowman likes Jews, he just doesn't much care for Israel. The constituent declined, saying he doesn't want to be the Representative's "Court Jew." We didn't know that sort of position still existed, but apparently it's open if anyone is interested. Meanwhile, over the weekend, Bowman held a rally with other progressive members of Congress where he told the crowd "We are gonna show fu**ing AIPAC the power of the motherfu**ing South Bronx!" and "My opponent supports genocide. My opponent and AIPAC are the ones destroying our democracy."
  
  We do not presume to have our finger on the pulse of NY-16, but all of this makes it appear as if Bowman's internal polling is giving him bad news, and he's getting desperate. So, if we had to wager, we'd wager that Latimer is going to win this thing.
  
  
• CO-03: At R+7, this one really shouldn't be competitive. However, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), who is fleeing for the redder pastures of CO-04, has burned some bridges, and is also leaving behind a pretty well situated Democrat in Adam Frisch, who's sitting on a mountain of "we dislike Boebert" money. In hopes of goosing Frisch's chances, the Democrats are doing some ratfu**ing, running commercials claiming that Republican candidate Ron Hanks is too conservative for Colorado, and that he's just too close to Donald Trump. The goal here, obviously, is to get far-right voters excited about Hanks, so he will get the nomination over the much-more-electable Jeff Hurd.
  
  
• CO-04: This is the district that Boebert will use to try to keep her career going. The good news for her is that it is an open seat (thanks to the early retirement of Ken Buck, R) and that the district is R+13. The bad news is that she's a carpetbagger who lives nowhere near the district and who doesn't know its issues, and she's got a long list of competitors. Another problem, which is wonky but very real, is that Boebert could not run in the race to fill out Buck's term without resigning her seat. So, what she needs is for Republicans to check the box for Greg Lopez in the special election, but then for Boebert in the primary. That's... tricky, although Lopez is not running for a full term, so he's not on the list of primary candidates.
  
  This weekend, John Padora, the Democrat who will face the Republican primary winner, released an ad filmed in the theater seat where Boebert engaged in shenanigans a few months back. We don't know exactly what his plan was here, since his only faint hope of winning is to face off against the unpopular Congresswoman. In any case, the ad could have an effect on the GOP primary by reminding some voters of the seamier side of Boebert's career. Polling for the primary has been all over the place and, again, congressional primary polls are shaky, at best. So, seeing if the Representative can hold on will probably be the single most dramatic story of the night.
  
  
• CO-07 and CO-08: With a PVI of D+4 and EVEN, these are Colorado's two competitive districts. They are represented by Brittany Pettersen (D) and Yadira Caraveo (D), each of whom will learn the identity of their opponents tomorrow.

And now you have your viewing guide for Tuesday night. (Z)