Dem
51
GOP
49
Yesterday, we had an item about how the presidential campaign is about to get very negative, particularly in the days leading up to the first debate (June 27). We hope you liked that item, because you're about to get three more on the same subject.
To put this first item in context, let's start by talking about yet another new poll, this one from Politico/IPSOS. The pollster asked a whole bunch of questions about the justice system (executive summary: nobody likes the Supreme Court) and about the Donald Trump criminal fraud trial in particular. And there are two takeaways that really matter when it comes to the 2024 presidential election.
The first of those is that among voters who identify as independents, 32% say that the felony convictions make it less likely they will vote for Trump. Of course, that could mean 99% less likely or it could mean .000099% less likely. So, the pollster followed up by asking exactly how important the felony conviction would be. And 21% of independent respondents said that not only would the conviction make them less likely to vote for Trump, but that it would be an important factor in their vote. If you speculate that half those folks were Biden votes before the trial and half were Trump votes (not an unreasonable assumption), and you further imagine that 50%/50% has now become 60%/40%, then that is most certainly enough to swing some close states.
The second finding, meanwhile, is that the attacks made by Trump on the verdict and on the justice system are reaching at least some voters. In particular, 44% of independents think that Trump was prosecuted in order to help Joe Biden (50% think that wasn't the case), while 27% of independents think the trial was not fair and impartial (46% think it was).
We don't think that the Biden campaign is looking to Politico and IPSOS for guidance, but we do think that the Democrats have internal polling telling them the same things. And the lesson here could not be more clear. There is benefit in putting the "Trump the felon" narrative out there, early and often. And, perhaps equally importantly, if Biden and the Democrats fail to put that out there, Trump and the Republicans might well be able to re-seize the initiative, and replace "Trump the felon" with "Trump the victim of a corrupt justice system."
Given that, it's no surprise that Biden is now leaning hard into Trump's criminal convictions. In the item yesterday, we talked about the strong words that both Biden and Barack Obama had for their successor/predecessor at this weekend's big-dollar Democratic fundraiser. Shortly thereafter, the Biden campaign released a new ad entitled "Character Matters":
In case you don't care to watch, here is what the narrator (actor John Goodman) says:
In the courtroom, we see Donald Trump for who he is.
He's been convicted of 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault, and he committed financial fraud!
Meanwhile, Joe Biden's been working lowering health care costs and making big corporations pay their fair share.
This election is between a convicted criminal who's only out for himself, and a president who's fighting for your family.
The ad began airing yesterday in heavy rotation in swing states. It's part of a $50 million spend that Biden '24 has planned for the remainder of the month of June. And, just maybe, Trump's convictions might come up at the debate. For example: "President Biden, can you summarize your views on farm subsidies? Well, Jake, as the only candidate on stage who is not a convicted felon..."
At this weekend's fundraiser, Biden also introduced another justice-related theme that he's sure to return to, over and over. Noting that nobody likes the Supreme Court (only 7% of Democrats and 11% of independents have "a great deal" of trust in the Court, according to the Politico/IPSOS poll), the President pointed out that if Trump is returned to the White House, he will likely get to appoint at least two more Supreme Court justices (since Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito would probably retire). Somebody in Biden's orbit came up with a pretty good way to put it: "He's going to appoint two more [justices] flying flags upside down." That's a pretty good soundbite, we'd say. Anyhow, this just might come up at the debate, too. (Z)