Dem
51
GOP
49
The predictable result of a Congress that can't get anything done is that presidents will use executive orders very liberally and very creatively. So it is with Joe Biden and the Mexican border.
A few weeks ago, of course, Biden issued an XO that empowered the Dept. of Homeland Security to summarily eject asylum-seekers if: (1) the total number of border crossings averaged 2,500+ per day for a week or more, and (2) those asylum-seekers crossed at places other than official processing centers.
A new poll from Monmouth indicates that Biden's XO has relatively broad support. Overall, 40% of respondents liked the move while 27% opposed it. Among Republicans, it's 44% and 29%; among Democrats, it's 40% and 22%; among independents, it's 38% and 30%. Those totals for the independents are a little strange, but in any event, the President will take these numbers every day and twice on Saturday. He doesn't really need to "win" on this issue, he just needs to blunt it as a weapon for Donald Trump. And if the XO has significantly more supporters than opponents across the spectrum, then it's serving his political goals.
There's another new poll out, this one from CBS/YouGov, that kinda suggests that Biden could maybe try to flog this issue even harder, if he wanted. According to the results, 62% of Americans would support a program to deport all undocumented immigrants from the country, as opposed to 30% who would oppose it. By party, that notion has the support of 38% of Democrats (62% oppose), 60% of independents (40% oppose) and 88% of Republicans (12% oppose). By ethnicity, it has the support of 67% of white respondents, 53% of Latino respondents and 47% of Black respondents.
Biden would never actually try something like this, of course. First of all, we're not so sure the numbers pass the smell test. Second, even if you take the numbers at face value, it's pretty risky to do something that two-thirds of your base opposes, in hopes of attracting some fence-sitting votes. Third, mass-ejection of undocumented immigrants would be an enormously difficult undertaking, especially without new funding from Congress. Fourth, and finally, Biden and his team are clever enough to know that Americans tend not to be great about thinking through the consequences of their desires. If some large segment of the undocumented population were to be ejected, do you know what would happen to the availability and prices of the fresh foods—produce, meat, seafood, etc.—at the grocery store? Not to mention the prices of restaurant food? Of hotel rooms? Of new construction?
Instead, the President will go in a very different direction today. This week is the 12th anniversary of DACA, which protects undocumented children who have been in the country for 10 years or more. Although the official reason for announcing that program in mid-June of 2012 was to commemorate the 30th anniversary of Plyler v. Doe, which made it illegal for public schools to charge tuition to undocumented students, it did not escape notice at the time that Barack Obama was in the midst of a heated reelection battle. Just to give a little context, there were ten national preference polls released that week, and Obama led in four, Romney led in five, and one was tied. In all but one, the gap between them was 4 points or fewer. Sound like any other presidential race you've heard about?
As someone who took careful notes during his time as VP, Biden will use the anniversary of DACA as pretext for issuing an XO that might as well be called DASA—Deferred Action for Spousal Arrivals. The order is built around an existing legal authority called "parole in place," which allows undocumented immigrants to adjust their immigration status while remaining in the United States. In the past, this has primarily been utilized by undocumented relatives of service members, but the new XO will extend it to all undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens, if those undocumented spouses have been in the U.S. for at least 10 years. And not only will the undocumented spouses be protected from deportation, they will have a path to citizenship.
Undoubtedly, the new XO will be challenged in court. We wouldn't be terribly surprised if Texas AG Ken Paxton camped out on the steps of the federal courthouse in Amarillo last night, just so he could get his suit on Matthew Kacsmaryk's docket at the first possible second. However, the wheels of justice turn slowly, and there certainly won't be a resolution on this new XO anytime soon. Even if Kacsmaryk or some other judge issues one of those national injunctions, well, it will be clear who is trying to help the DASAs and who is not. And while the folks being affected by Biden's first XO cannot vote, the spouses of the DASAs most certainly can. It's estimated there are roughly 800,000 such voters, and they are disproportionately resident in swing states. Note also that DACA is broadly popular, even with Republicans, so it figures the new program will be popular, too.
In short, you're seeing a wily, veteran politico at work here. We'll soon see if his approach pays dividends. (Z)